The interim accord has not completely prevented a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Nor does it address the rapid deterioration in Sino-US relations, amid their increasing divergence in geopolitics, strategic goals and ideologies.
Welcome to the age of great-power competition. Much more than a geopolitical bumper sticker, this label describes the foundation of what has become the free world’s new grand strategy, not just for the United States, but for many of our friends, partners and allies as well. It is a competition without precedent. One aspect of this new world disorder—advanced technological competition—is particularly noteworthy. It will be infused throughout the struggle, and if Washington wants to win, America will have to do better.
At a time when many countries are finally trying to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, the world is suddenly awash in oil and gas discoveries. But for the countries with the newest finds, many of them in Africa and South America, mineral wealth may not be the bonanza it was in decades past.
The good news, then, is that the world in 2030 will be more prosperous. Indeed, the middle class could swell to over 5.5 billion people, predominantly in Asia. But it will also be significantly more unequal in individual countries. The European and North American middle class may not get much relief given current growth and policy trends. Rich people in those countries will continue to prosper, but that raises the question of whether such trends are politically and socially sustainable and, if not, what kinds of new politics and new policies will arise.
Citing a sharp economic slowdown in India and other emerging markets, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday lowered growth estimate for the world economy to 2.9 per cent for 2019. Besides, the International Monetary Fund also trimmed India’s growth estimate to 4.8 per cent for 2019, citing stress in the non-banking financial sector and weak rural income growth.
While the trade war between China and the United States has hogged headlines and driven market anxieties over the past year, an equally large threat to the global economy has gotten little attention: a looming tax war. Since the early twentieth century, countries have largely agreed on how to tax income earned by multinational corporations that conduct business across borders. But this long-standing regime is coming apart, imperiling the broader international economic order.
We know the modern corporation may be multinational. But is it possible for a person to be truly a part of multiple cultures, with favoritism for none? The strange case of Carlos Ghosn—which spans the globe from Paris to Tokyo to Nashville to Lebanon and back again—reveals that the limits may be more rigid than previously supposed.
After committing to monetary-policy normalization in 2018, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank spent the past year reversing course with further interest-rate cuts and liquidity injections. Yet, given mounting medium-term uncertainties, central bankers cannot assume calm conditions in 2020.
Helicopter cash, climate crises, smart cities and the space economy — investors have all those possibilities ahead as they enter the third decade of the 21st century. They go into the new decade with a spring in their step, after watching world stocks add over $25 trillion in value in the past 10 years and a bond rally put $13 trillion worth of bond yields below zero.
The “phase one” trade deal between the United States and China addresses only some of the US government’s concerns, and its remaining demands will be much harder to resolve. But while both America and China have an interest in the success of the open multilateral global trading system, current US policy is undermining that goal.
