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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

What’s On Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Agenda For First Official Visit To North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s maiden state visit to Pyongyang this week may signal an economic re-engagement with the hermit kingdom, according to Chinese state media. Ahead of the visit, Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily has suggested, via its social media account, that restoring bilateral economic relations would be on the agenda.

Read Here – South China Morning Post

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Taking On Tehran

Forty years after the revolution that ousted the Shah, Iran’s unique political-religious system and government appears strong enough to withstand US pressure and to ride out the country’s current economic difficulties. So how should the US minimize the risks to the region posed by the regime?

Read Here – Project Syndicate

The Growing Risk Of A Global Recession And Crisis In 2020

Beyond the US, the fragility of growth in debt-ridden China and some other emerging markets remains a concern, as do economic, policy, financial and political risks in Europe. Worse, across the advanced economies, the policy toolbox for responding to a crisis remains limited. The monetary and fiscal interventions and private-sector backstops used after the 2008 financial crisis simply cannot be deployed to the same effect today.

Read Here – Mint

What A Biden-Trump Presidential Race Might Look Like

In the inquiry into who would be the strongest Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020, Donald Trump is what might be called a hostile witness. “Joe Biden is a dummy,” the President said last week, on his way to Iowa, where Biden, who spent more than three decades in the Senate and eight years as Barack Obama’s Vice-President and one of his closest advisers, was campaigning.

Read Here – The New Yorker

Attacking Iran Would Unleash Chaos On The Middle East

Undeterred by decades of carnage and the disastrous outcomes of prior conflicts, ideologues within the Trump administration are clamouring for military action against Iran. The exact basis for this escalation varies. There is little doubt that Osama bin Laden would have loved to see the United States attack and overthrow another of Al Qaeda’s enemies, this time the Shia mullahs of Iran.

Read Here – The National Interest

Why Population Will Drive Geopolitics

Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close. Although conventional measures of economic and military power often receive more attention, few factors influence the long-term competition between great powers as much as changes in the size, capabilities, and characteristics of national populations.

Read Here – Foreign Affairs

A Tanker War In The Middle East—Again?

Tensions in the Gulf are an eerie echo of the tanker war that erupted in the late eighties during the eight-year conflict between Iraq and Iran. The tanker war was launched in 1984, when Iraq attacked Iran’s oil terminal and oil tankers at Kharg Island, in the northern Persian Gulf. Iran responded by striking tankers—initially from Kuwait and later from other nations—that ferried Iraqi oil.

Read Here – The New Yorker

The Millions Who Left

It has taken nearly 30 years, but half of all eastern German regions finally have a positive migration balance with western German states. For the first time, more people are moving from West to East than the other way around. That is primarily due to the fact that fewer and fewer people are leaving the East – in part because there are hardly any people left in many regions who are both willing to migrate and able to do so. But it is also because many large cities and regions in the former East have become a draw, places like Potsdam or Leipzig, for example.

Read Here – Zeit

Europe’s Dream: Escaping The Dictatorship Of The Dollar

Trump’s hostile behaviour is reinvigorating efforts to turn the euro into an alternative to the world’s dominant currency. If only the Europeans could find some way to do it.

Read Here – Foreign Policy

The ‘Xi Doctrine’: Proclaiming And Rationalizing China’s Aggression

Empirical evidence of China’s aggression is increasingly common, from its attempt to dominate the South China Sea, the neo-imperialist effort to gain control of states through the Belt and Road Initiative, to its technological imperialism to control 5G and artificial intelligence technologies. What is rather less frequent are statements from high-level Chinese officials proclaiming the country’s intent to be aggressive and offering an attempted legitimising principle justifying that aggression.

Read Here – The National Interest

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