The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year as austerity measures, high unemployment and low business confidence weigh on economies in developed nations. The Washington-based bank projects the world economy will expand 2.4 percent, down from a June forecast of 3 percent, after growing 2.3 percent in 2012. It halved its forecast for Japan, cut […]
“We are moving away from a U.S. – or Europe-led world to a world led by China,” writes Stephen King, Chief Global Economist at HSBC in a report. HSBC’s Emerging Market Index for the last quarter of 2012 tells investors to think of the global economy in terms of “two separate narratives.” The first is the “old world” […]
The history of economics is largely a struggle between two opposing schools of thought, “liberalism” and “mercantilism.” Economic liberalism, with its emphasis on private entrepreneurship and free markets, is today’s dominant doctrine. But its intellectual victory has blinded us to the great appeal – and frequent success – of mercantilist practices. In fact, mercantilism remains […]
Professional geographers agree that you can’t fall off the edge of the world by sailing too far in the wrong direction. Economists as an academic discipline have had more trouble coming to agreement on what works and what fails in their world. Stimulus or austerity? Looser money or tighter money? The seemingly unresolvable fights in […]
It’s that time of year again: Experts of all kinds are coming out of the woodwork to offer up forecasts and predictions for the year ahead. It can be amusing, but this is not the most productive way to think about the future. Perhaps you’re familiar with Philip Tetlock’s landmark 2005 UC Berkeley study that looked at […]
Central banks in Indonesia and India, with the worst-performing currencies among Asian emerging markets this year, will face more challenges in 2013 as they balance inflation risks with the need to boost growth. The Reserve Bank of India must deal with “conflicting cues” from elevated prices and an economic slowdown, complicating policy decisions even after […]
With a whiff of global recovery in the air and central bank liquidity abundant, investors in 2013 are packing their bags for China, fellow ‘BRICs‘ Brazil and Russia, long-dormant Japan and even some Mediterranean sun. Of course, seeking consensus on the top country destinations for the year ahead is hardly an exact science. Often the simplest game […]
The International Monetary Fund has rethought its doctrine on capital controls. The IMF, which previously favored unfettered flows of money across borders, now accepts that controls are sometimes necessary. This is a real improvement, yet it’s incomplete because it lacks a mechanism for supervision and enforcement. The fund can’t rectify that omission by itself. Member governments can and should. […]
There is reason to believe that the global economy will have to navigate troubled waters till 2015, since the Eurozone is now in recession and the crisis will take time to abate. Europe has made several important moves since December 2011, by injecting some essential liquidity in the system. But it is necessary to understand […]
More than half a decade has passed since the recession that triggered the financial panic and the Great Recession, but the condition of the world continues to be summed up by what I’ve called ‘turboparalysis’ — a prolonged condition of furious motion without movement in any particular direction, a situation in which the engine roars […]
looking beyond borders 