Germany’s new coalition government is comprised of three very unequal partners. The SPD and the Greens campaigned for massive tax increases for the rich, while the FDP called for tax cuts for all. The result: nothing will change. The SPD and the Greens blocked tax cuts, the FDP blocked tax increases. Read More Here
Although the United States has long commanded the technological cutting edge, China is mounting a credible challenge in key areas. But, ultimately, the balance of power will be decided not by technological development but by diplomacy and strategic choices, both at home and abroad. Read More Here
Post-Biden-Xi summit diplomacy is a test of intentions. The only way to answer fundamental relationship questions is to put aside assumptions and pursue negotiations that will test intentions on the issues that created friction. This will necessarily be an incremental and protracted process. Read More Here
Differences between support for globalization among high-skilled and low-skilled workers—and gaps in the optimism the two groups feel about their prospects for upward mobility—have grown in poor countries as well as rich ones. As a result, overall backing for economic integration is eroding. Read More Here
After the Sixth Plenum, Xi Jinping’s “Historical Resolution” makes it clear that he views the telling of Chinese Communist Party history as a tool of regime survival—to succeed where Moscow failed. Read More Here
While U.S.-Russian relations continue to deteriorate in many spheres, the Arctic provides an arena for possible cooperation. In particular, Russian wariness of China’s Arctic ambitions could provide novel opportunities for warming ties between Moscow and Washington. Read More Here
Chinese debts are squeezing Pakistan’s pinched finances as external payments are set to balloon to US$14 billion at the end of this financial year. Nearly half is owed to Chinese commercial banks, largely for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) related projects. Read More Here
In planning for the year ahead, economic policymakers should pay less attention to the consensus economic forecast and more attention to today’s everything asset and credit market bubble. Maybe then when those bubbles burst, they will not be caught out as flatfooted as they were in 2008. Read More Here
Bangladesh’s motivations are less about growing fondness for China, however, and more about geopolitical realities in South Asia and long-term dissatisfaction with India. Read More Here
The struggle for geopolitical primacy between Iran’s Shiite theocracy and the countries led by Sunni Arabs and, more recently, Sunni Turkey is stoking conflict across the region—eroding social compacts, worsening state dysfunction, and catalyzing extremist movements. Read More Here
