Five Reasons Why Trump Will Win

Well, folks, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing […]

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The South China Sea Is Really A Fishery Dispute

Given its power and recent assertiveness in the South China Sea, China’s interests deserve special attention. Aside from enlarging China’s security perimeter, China’s regional interests can be roughly lumped into three “P”s—politics, petroleum, and proteins (fish). The last of these interests, competition over dwindling SCS fisheries, may be most consequential in driving competition, but has […]

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Has Summer Brought A New Optimism About The Russian Economy?

Markets have soared: the ruble is the best-performing emerging market currency this year, up over 20 percent since late January against the dollar, and equities have posted double-digit gains. Russian markets have benefited from a range of macroeconomic and technical factors—a moderate pickup in oil prices, a search for yield by investors punished by low […]

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Donald Trump’s Dark Vision

The primary election campaign made clear that Republicans are looking for a miracle worker, but with none in the field, they opted for the snake-oil salesmen instead. Trump pitches himself as an ultra-successful businessman, but scratching the story’s surface makes clear that it is — like so many others he tells — a mirage. Read […]

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The Global Economy’s Hesitation Blues

Economic slowdowns can often be characterized as periods of hesitation. Consumers hesitate to buy a new house or car, thinking that the old house or car will do just fine for a while longer. Managers hesitate to expand their workforce, buy a new office building, or build a new factory, waiting for news that will […]

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China And The South China Sea arbitration: What Next?

The arbitration verdict has all the characteristics of an event that strongly undermines China’s bargaining position – challenging the legality of key aspects of China’s South China Sea policy and equipping rival claimants, the United States, and Japan, with legal language to criticise Chinese actions from a moral high ground. Read Here – European Council […]

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