Photo by Marc-Olivier Jodoin on Unsplash
In the decade since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the global financial crisis, the world economy has registered stronger growth than many realize, owing in large part to China. But in the years ahead, global economic imbalances and troubling trends in the business world will continue to pose economic as well as political risks.
The Federal Reserve deserves praise for managing once again to carry out a tricky transition without causing disruptions in financial markets and creating too much risk for the real economy. Sustaining this success will require more than just the central bank’s continued responsive policy making, Mohamed El-Erian writes for Bloomberg.
China has many levers to pull economically, and stagnation and lower potential growth are relative. But the global hunt for economic growth by central banks will be a persistent source of volatility in financial markets. Without the ability to jump start their economies using traditional monetary policies, central banks will use unconventional policies more often in attempts to remain competitive globally and search for increasingly elusive growth spurts. Larry Summers may have been more correct than he knew.
The current China conundrum lies in both economic and political dimensions, although much of the alarm about China’s economic downturn appears to be misplaced or overstated. China’s economic fundamentals essentially are solid. Multiple indicators point to a growth slowdown that remains broadly in line with the leadership’s game plan, and the authorities can draw upon enormous financial resources and economic resilience. Particularly if planned reforms go forward, the Chinese economy should be able to continue functioning as a reliable driver of global economic growth.
Read Here – Knowledge@Wharton
Commodities trading guru and hedge fund manager Jim Rogers has sold his holdings in Indian companies and exited India because, he says, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government has failed to live up to investors’ expectations.
If you think Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is stressed, spare a thought for Agus Martowardojo. On Tuesday, the governor of Indonesia’s central bank had to choose between cutting interest rates to support growth or hiking them to prop up his currency. He ultimately decided to split the difference and do nothing. Martowardojo’s dilemma is emblematic of the increasingly chaotic situation in the world’s emerging markets.
The day Asian leaders have long dreaded is here: The era of rapid growth is over. It has taken five years, but the fallout from what Asians call the “Lehman shock” is finally hitting gross domestic product and living standards, writes William Pesak
