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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “Demographics”

Why Population Will Drive Geopolitics

Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close. Although conventional measures of economic and military power often receive more attention, few factors influence the long-term competition between great powers as much as changes in the size, capabilities, and characteristics of national populations.

Read Here – Foreign Affairs

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Let’s Get Real About What Ails Japan’s Economy

A quarter of a century of failure and economic stagnation has built a strong consensus on what ails Japan. All sources of analysis—domestic, foreign, government, corporate and nonprofit—identify two problems: the country’s aging demographics and its deeply entrenched, top-down approach to economic organization. This analysis is wrong.

Read Here – The National Interest

China’s Self-Inflicted Demographic Disaster Is Here

The liberalization of the one-child policy had been expected—and virtually inevitable. China, after all, is heading toward accelerated demographic decline. The country’s population is now projected to peak in 2028, well before the 2030–2035 timeframe expected just a half decade ago. In all probability, the top will be reached earlier, maybe in 2020.

Read Here – The National Interest

Japan’s Depopulation Time Bomb

Japan‘s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research on March 27 announced a population estimate for Japan in 2040. As expected, what emerges out of this is a nation with an unprecedented rapidly aging and declining population. The implications of the estimate must be taken very seriously and preparations made to ameliorate the impact of this situation.

Read Here – Japan Times

India: A Demographic Disaster in Making

As ChinaJapan and many other nations face an aging demographic profile, the youth segment of India’s population is growing rapidly, and is projected to continue to do so for the next 30 years. Provided India can act quickly on health, education and employment, this demographic dividend has the potential to inject new dynamism into its flagging economy. Failure to do so, however, will result in demographic disaster.

Read Here – The Diplomat

China’s Vast Reserve Of Cheap Workers In The Hinterland Is Vanishing At A Vertiginous Pace.

We can now discern more or less when the catch-up growth miracle will sputter out. Another seven years or so – enough to bouy global coal, crude, and copper prices for a while – but then it will all be over. China’s demographic dividend will be exhausted.

Beijing revealed last week that the country’s working age population has already begun to shrink, sooner than expected. It will soon go into “precipitous decline”, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Japan hit this inflexion point fourteen years ago, but by then it was already rich, with $3 trillion of net savings overseas. China has hit the wall a quarter century earlier in its development path.

Read Here – The Telegraph, London

For Better Planning, Watch Global Demographic Trends

An understanding of demographic trends can assist governments in targeting policies for the future and saving money for education, retirement, taxes, healthcare, distribution of natural resources, and more. More importantly, targeted policies can ease resentment emerging over demographic imbalances. The globe can anticipate an additional 1 billion people by 2025 – a total of 8 billion – and demographer Joseph Chamie lists seven trends. Most of the globe’s annual population growth will be in less developed nations, while more than half the world’s gross domestic product is from the most developed nations. The percentage growth of the aged will be fourfold that of the working class. More people are concentrated in urban areas, many along coastlines and vulnerable to rising seas and other repercussions of climate change. Global fertility rates continue to decline, but rates still vary among nations. Such trends suggest many imbalances, between young and old, poor and wealthy, that will spur immigration. Economic uncertainty is no excuse for policy stalemates in the face of demography’s relative certainty. Shifting demographics demand policy responses – the sooner, the better. – YaleGlobal

 

Read Here – YaleGlobal

 

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