The pandemic has created a massive economic contraction that will be followed by a financial crisis in many parts of the globe, as nonperforming corporate loans accumulate alongside bankruptcies. Sovereign defaults in the developing world are also poised to spike. This crisis will follow a path similar to the one the last crisis took, except worse, commensurate with the scale and scope of the collapse in global economic activity.
By many measures, 2020 is looking to be the worst year that humankind has faced in many decades. We’re in the midst of a pandemic… The world economy is in free fall, with unemployment rising dramatically, trade and output plummeting, and no hopeful end in sight. A plague of locusts is back for a second time in Africa…Given all that, what could possibly make things worse? Here’s one possibility: war.
While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.
Unemployment in the U.S. is swelling to levels last seen during the Great Depression of the 1930s, with 1 in 6 American workers thrown out of a job by the coronavirus, according to new data released Thursday. In response to the deepening economic crisis, the House passed a nearly $500 billion spending package to help buckled businesses and hospitals.
An economy without crowds is not a “new normal.” It may be more like the new anomie, to borrow Émile Durkheim’s term for the sense of disconnectedness. For most people, the word “fun” is almost synonymous with “crowd.” The coming year will be a time of depression in the psychological as well as the economic sense.
Photo by Pepi Stojanovski on Unsplash
The United States is the battle-tested survivor of 12 recessions and a Great Depression over the last century. China has not suffered a recession since its economic boom began four decades ago, and its leaders now respond to any hint of a downturn by pumping more debt into the economy.
With the COVID-19 pandemic still spiralling out of control, the best economic outcome that anyone can hope for is a recession deeper than that following the 2008 financial crisis. But given the flailing policy response so far, the chances of a far worse outcome are increasing by the day.
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During the financial crisis, when the global economy faced its gravest threat since the 1930s, policymakers sprang into action. To stimulate the economy, central banks slashed interest rates and politicians spent lavishly. As a result, the recession, though bad, was far less severe than the Depression. Unfortunately, however, that quick response nearly exhausted governments’ economic arsenals. Seven years later they remain depleted. Central banks’ benchmark interest rates hover above zero; government debt and deficits have ballooned. Should recession strike again, as inevitably it will, rich countries in particular will be ill-equipped to fend it off.
The region is currently paying a high social cost for the lack of attention paid to public health, and these costs will grow ever more severe in the absence of concerted action. Obesity is nearing epidemic proportions in MENA, with some of the highest rates in the world.
