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Archive for the tag “Economy of the People’s Republic of China”

The Game Changing 8% Story

For over a quarter century, the one figure that dominated discussion of China’s economy was this: eight percent. Beginning in 1982, when leader Deng Xiaoping established the percentage as necessary to quadruple the size of the country’s GDP by 2000, China has seldom failed to achieve it—even in 2009, when the world was enduring the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

Read Here – The Atlantic

Advantage USA

Beyond the bright prospects for the return to rapid U.S. economic growth and the resulting decline in federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, the U.S. will enjoy six major long-term advantages over its competitors.

Read Here – Bloomberg

The World Takes A Hard Look At The Chinese Economy

China’s economy has shown signs of not working since the fall of 2011, but most economists and analysts chose to ignore them. Now, just about everyone is commenting on Chinese economic weakness. Expert opinion never seemed more synchronized.

Read Here – WorldAffairsJournal

A Case For China’s Slowdown

For China, 2013 is becoming the year of the credible shrinking GDP growth target. Earlier in the year, the old 8% norm was shaved down to an official estimate of 7.5% by China’s State Council. Last week, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei moved that to 7%, and said an even lower number was possible.

Read Here – Fortune

Politics Of A Slowing China: Project Syndicate

The recent financial turmoil in China, with interbank loan rates spiking to double digits within days, provides further confirmation that the world’s second-largest economy is headed for a hard landing. Fueled by massive credit growth (equivalent to 30% of GDP from 2008 to 2012), the Chinese economy has taken on a level of financial leverage that is the highest among emerging markets. This will not end well.
Read Here – Project Syndicate

IMF Scares With Global Slowdown Warning

World economic growth will struggle to accelerate this year as a U.S. expansion weakens,China’s economy levels off and Europe’s recession deepens, the International Monetary Fund said.

Read Here – Bloomberg

In China It’s About Debt, Not Liquidity

The problem is that China does not really have a liquidity crisis; it has a debt crisis, and the debt crisis is the result of a slowdown in the economy. Despite claims from China’s National Bureau of Statistics that the economy is growing 7.7 percent, growth is more like 3 to 4 percent. And if you strip out economically useless production, the growth rate might even be 0 percent. Slow growth means borrowers will not be able to service their debts, and highly leveraged businesses and government entities will default in domino-like fashion.

Read Here – World Affairs Journal

China’s Slowdown Skins Gold And Oil

The wreckage caused by China’s great, juddering slowdown continues to spread far beyond the country’s shores. Although most commodities enjoyed a bounce on May 3, after better-than-expected U.S. employment data, the plunge in their prices over the past few months suggests the past decade’s rally is truly broken, Ruchir Sharma argues

Read Here – Bloomberg

Why the China Dream Might Be a Mirage: William Pesak

If global economists are distraught over the gloomy numbers coming out of China, imagine how Xi Jinping must feel.

China’s president, officially in the post for barely a month, is still consolidating his power. At home, he confronts a widening rich-poor gap and endemic pollution, not to mention bird flu and rivers overrun with dead pigs. Abroad, China’s erstwhile ally North Korea is looking increasingly unhinged. Now Xi faces intense pressure to retool the Chinese economy if he wants to build on gains the Communist Party has delivered over the last 30 years.

Read Here – Bloomberg

Long Live China’s Slowdown

At 7.7%, China’s annual GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was slower than many expected. While the data were hardly devastating relative to a consensus forecast of 8.2%, many (including me) expected a second consecutive quarterly rebound from the slowdown that appeared to have ended in the third quarter of 2012. China doubters around the world were quick to pounce on the number, expressing fears of a stall, or even a dreaded double dip.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

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