Keynes, Trains and Automobiles

FOR 35 years the steel bolts holding up the ceiling of Sasago Tunnel, on a busy toll road west of Tokyo, were never checked. On December 2nd more than 600 of them had worked themselves so loose that a 130-metre stretch of the roof collapsed, crushing nine motorists. The disaster played into the hands of […]

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The New Old Year

Any look back at 2012 would necessarily focus on three parts of the world: the eurozone, with its seemingly endless financial uncertainties; the Middle East, with its many upheavals, including, but hardly limited to, the Muslim Brotherhood’s accession to power in Egypt and Syria’s savage civil war, which has already claimed more than 60,000 lives; […]

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Catherine the Great Ruled Better Than Putin

One year has passed since Russia awakened. A negative trend had dominated the past 12 years in Russia: The number of freedoms decreased while abuses of the Kremlin‘s power increased. This was largely met by indifference among the people. But in December 2011, that indifference ended with the beginning of the protest movement. The country was set on a new path that will lead to either the overthrow of the regime […]

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What Happens When China Goes “Gray”?

As China‘s major trading partners try to control rising public pension and health care costs, they may not realize they also have an important stake in China’s ongoing struggle to fashion a safety net for its own rapidly aging population. Many observers assume China has no pensions or healthcare insurance for the 185 million people over […]

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Lessons From the Last Great Hero of Modern Finance

The global economy was not the only casualty of the 2008 financial collapse. The crisis also soiled the reputations of many in the financial industry and of the regulators, political leaders, and media outlets that were supposed to keep them in check. So William Silber’s new biography of Paul Volcker, one of the last remaining […]

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China Powers “Two World” Economy

“We are moving away from a U.S. – or Europe-led world to a world led by China,” writes Stephen King, Chief Global Economist at HSBC in a report. HSBC’s Emerging Market Index for the last quarter of 2012 tells investors to think of the global economy in terms of “two separate narratives.” The first is the “old world” […]

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A Metaphor for Obama

As US President Barack Obama begins his second term, he needs a simple way to express his vision and policies for the economy – a metaphor around which support for his policies might crystallize, thereby boosting his administration’s political effectiveness. So, what makes a successful metaphor work? The 2008 Obama campaign used the slogan “Change […]

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The U.K. and the EU: Irreconcilable Differences?

The European Union is a remarkable achievement that now faces its most threatening crisis. The reason for both is the same: Its insistence through the years on combining ambition and ambiguity. Theoretically dedicated from the outset to “ever-closer union,” member governments never settled on what that might mean, or bothered too much about whether their citizens would […]

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China Will Become a More “Normal” Economy

2013 will be remembered as the year China became a more “normal economy”. What does normality mean for China? Soon-to-depart Premier Wen Jiabao’s oft-cited quote that China’s growth is “unbalanced, unsustainable and uncoordinated” is a good place to start. China was an abnormal economy with its state-led capitalist approach that produced double-digit growth rates, no […]

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