The CIA And The Hazards Of Middle East Forecasting

Government agencies do not often acknowledge their own errors, but the CIA has done just that with the declassification of intelligence memoranda on the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. The documents show that agency analysts, down to the last minute before the outbreak of fighting, were assuring President Nixon, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and other policymakers […]

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The Virtual Middle Class Rises

I ENCOUNTERED something on this trip to India that I had never met before: a whole new political community — India’s “virtual middle class.” Its emergence explains a lot about the rise of social protests here, as well as in places like China and Egypt. It is one of the most exciting things happening on […]

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Egyptian Democrats May Pave the Way for Army’s Coup

I hate to agree with an Egyptian general about anything, but Abdelfatah Al-Seesi, who’s alsoEgypt’s defense minister, had a point when he warned his countrymen on Facebook that continued violent protest in the streets might lead to collapse. Ordinary Egyptians have plenty of reasons to be frustrated with the government of President Mohamed Mursi, which has by […]

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The Syrian Crisis and the Future of Iraq

There is an unremarked paradox in the tumult of the contemporary Middle East. Syria is an economically impoverished country of a little more than 20 million people that has been politically stagnant until 23 months ago. Egypt, by contrast, never socially at rest and with its ancient energies newly bestirred, is at 80.5 million people […]

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Factional Squabbles Hold Egypt To Ransom

It must have been unsettling for President Mohammad Mursi to find himself, on the second anniversary of the Egyptian revolution, forced to take measures reminiscent of those used by Hosni Mubarak in a last-minute attempt to rescue his regime from collapse. Faced with growing unrest and the failure of police to contain the turmoil in […]

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Time for U.S. to Stop Shielding Israel

We are now set for a third term for Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu. And, although Netanyahu’s Likud–Yisrael Beiteinu coalition seems to have underperformed expectations, a plurality of the vote will allow him to once again lead Israel’s government. But even a somewhat moderated Netanyahu government will continue to advance radical positions that put regional and […]

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Violent Dissent And The Dream Of Democracy

Millions of people in Arab Spring nations are painfully realising that the fruits of revolution are not all they were cracked up to be. January 25 was meant to be a joyous occasion in Egypt, but instead of fireworks, there were Molotov cocktails and smoke from burning tyres and torched buildings. No major Egyptian city […]

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The Mirage of the Arab Spring

As popular demonstrations swept across the Arab world in 2011, many U.S. policymakers and analysts were hopeful that the movements would usher in a new era for the region. That May, President Barack Obama described the uprisings as “a historic opportunity” for the United States “to pursue the world as it should be.” Secretary of […]

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