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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “Emerging markets”

Emerging Markets Aren’t Out Of The Woods Yet

How should emerging-market governments deal with the new original sin? One way would be to develop a large domestic institutional investor base that sets its objectives in domestic currency terms and is thus insulated from exchange-rate swings. National pension systems contribute to this goal, and many emerging-market countries, such as Chile and Mexico, have made solid progress in this direction.

Read Here – Foreign Affairs

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India’s Economy Is No Longer One Of The Cool Kids

India isn’t keeping the best company. When Reserve Bank of India officials reviewed the global economy at February’s meeting, they ticked off a list of major emerging markets that had struggled: China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa all got a must-do-better grade. Disappointing numbers released Thursday mean policy makers can add one closer to home: India itself.

Read Here – Bloomberg

International Trade: Where Human Insight Is Still In Demand

It’s an issue when emerging markets are expected to contribute about 60 per cent to global GDP growth up to 2021, according to an International Monetary Fund forecast. China alone currently contributes to more than 30 per cent of global growth, trumping the US. Not surprisingly opportunities for human-driven insights are increasing in these markets.

Read Here – Raconteur

Trump’s Caricature Of China As A Job-Stealing Economic Bogeyman Is Past Its Expiry Date

…The version of China that Trump continues to rail against is increasingly out-of-sync with the China that exists today. Its economy, much as other developed economies have already done, has begun transitioning towards a post-industrial economy. The manufacturing boom that powered China’s economic rise over the last two decades has started to draw to a close—and making goods is getting more expensive relative to other economies.

Read Here – Quartz

Riding The Tiger Of Debt And Bubbles

China is a good example of how an activist monetary policy can ferment bubbles, ruin the health of a financial system, economic reforms and, eventually, economic growth. Since 2004, China has run a gigantic monetary bubble that has corrupted virtually every corner of the economy.

Read Here – South China Morning Post

The Transitions Of 2016

One reason that the global economy is so sluggish is that, seven years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, financial stability is not yet assured. Financial-sector weaknesses linger in many countries – and financial risks are growing in emerging markets. Putting all of this together, global growth in 2016 will be disappointing and uneven, says Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

Narendra Modi Is Too Old For Modern-Day India

Some believe, or fear, that Modi is so powerful that he is a shoo-in for a second term in 2019. But a year in office has made it apparent that Modi’s mind is too old for the composite mind of India. In 2014, a youth wave voted Modi into power. It does not seem impossible to believe that if a reasonable political alternative takes shape, another youth wave in 2019 will vote him out.

Read Here – Bloomberg/Japan Times

“God Gave You Everything. And Then, He Also Gave You Delhi To Mess It All Up”

Commodities trading guru and hedge fund manager Jim Rogers has sold his holdings in Indian companies and exited India because, he says, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government has failed to live up to investors’ expectations.

Read Here – Mint

Will the World Ever Boom Again?

The problem is that China’s recent slowdown from 10 percent annual growth to about 7 percent is only the beginning. The recent drops in housing and stock prices are harbingers of a further economic moderation. That is inevitable, since no country can grow at a breakneck pace forever. And with the slowing of China, Brazil and Russia have been slowing as well — the heyday of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) is over. But the really worrying question is: What if other nations can’t pick up the slack when China slows? What if China is the last country to follow the tried-and-true path of industrialization?

Read Here – Bloomberg

China May Tip World Into Recession

Forget about all the shoes, toys and other exports. China may soon have another thing to offer the world: a recession. That is the prediction from Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, who says a continuation of China’s slowdown in the next years may drag global economic growth below 2 percent, a threshold he views as equivalent to a world recession. It would be the first global slump over the past 50 years without the U.S. contracting.

Read Here – Bloomberg

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