China Has Lots of Treasuries, Not Much Leverage

During the last U.S. presidential election, an editorial in a Chinese state-run newspaper declared that if Washington insisted on flouting Chinese interests (by selling arms to Taiwan, for example), Beijing should “use its financial weapon to teach the U.S. a lesson.” Three years later, America owes even more to China than the $1.16 trillion it owed then. […]

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Emerging Asia Can’t Just Rely On China

If you think Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is stressed, spare a thought for Agus Martowardojo. On Tuesday, the governor of Indonesia’s central bank had to choose between cutting interest rates to support growth or hiking them to prop up his currency. He ultimately decided to split the difference and do nothing. Martowardojo’s dilemma is emblematic of […]

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The Dollar Sinkhole

China’s $3.8 trillion of currency reserves are the largest stockpile ever amassed. Economists have long seen that money as a strength — the ultimate rainy-day fund should China’s shadow-banking system blow up. Trouble is, the value of those holdings depends on China’s $1.3 trillion of U.S. Treasuries. If they plunge in value, all hell breaks loose […]

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Up, Down, But Still Moving Forward

The coming months will see no end of obituaries written for the emerging world, and of the perils they face. There is nothing new about these prognostications, and they all miss the glaring realities of democratic transformation and its sometimes tumultuous consequences. They miss as well the degree to which hundreds of millions have seen […]

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Genteel Warriors

Central banking isn’t a contact sport like football, or even cricket. But the head of India’s central bank, who until recently was living and working in the U.S., is throwing some sharp elbows at his counterparts at the Federal Reserve. This is as close to a brawl as you’re likely to see in the genteel […]

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