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Archive for the tag “financial markets”

Recession, Robots And Rockets: Another Roaring 20s For World Markets?

Helicopter cash, climate crises, smart cities and the space economy — investors have all those possibilities ahead as they enter the third decade of the 21st century. They go into the new decade with a spring in their step, after watching world stocks add over $25 trillion in value in the past 10 years and a bond rally put $13 trillion worth of bond yields below zero.

Read Here – Reuters

Debt Looks Like The ‘New Normal’ For The Global Economy – Until The Next Crisis

In the “new normal” economic world, many beliefs have been turned on their head. Trade wars supposedly  do not cause lasting harm, declining corporate output, earnings and investment are no cause for alarm, stock prices can go on rising regardless, and record global debt is nothing to lose sleep over.

Read Here – South China Morning Post

Why Financial Markets’ New Exuberance Is Irrational

Owing to a recent easing of both Sino-American tensions and monetary policies, many investors seem to be betting on another era of expansion for the global economy. But they would do well to remember that the fundamental risks to growth remain, and are actually getting worse.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

The Anatomy Of The Coming Recession

Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

The G-Minus-2 Threat

The US-dominated G1 world is long gone, and the G2 system in which America and China shared hegemonic responsibilities is now fading into memory. In today’s G-minus-2 world, US and Chinese policies threaten to have devastating consequences for the global economy.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

Is Politics Getting To The Fed?

In the early 1980s, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, was able to choke off runaway inflation because he was afforded the autonomy necessary to implement steep interest-rate hikes. Today, the Fed is clearly under unprecedented political pressure, and it is starting to show.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

The US Economy’s Dirty Secret

There is a dirty little secret in economics today: the United States has benefited – and continues to benefit – from the global slump. The US economy is humming along, even while protesters in the United Kingdom hurl milkshakes at Brexiteers, French President Emmanuel Macron confronts nihilist yellow-vested marchers, and Chinese tech firms such as Huawei fear being frozen out of foreign markets.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

How Inflation Could Return

After years of low inflation, investors and policymakers have settled into a cyclical mindset that assumes advanced economies are simply suffering from insufficient aggregate demand. But they are ignoring structural factors at their peril.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

With Two Tweets, Trump Shatters Historic Calm In Global Markets

In the end, all it took was two tweets from Donald Trump. After weeks of warnings from many on Wall Street that price swings across global markets were too subdued, the American president’s threat to boost tariffs on China sent volatility soaring Monday.

Read Here – Bloomberg

Emerging Markets Aren’t Out Of The Woods Yet

How should emerging-market governments deal with the new original sin? One way would be to develop a large domestic institutional investor base that sets its objectives in domestic currency terms and is thus insulated from exchange-rate swings. National pension systems contribute to this goal, and many emerging-market countries, such as Chile and Mexico, have made solid progress in this direction.

Read Here – Foreign Affairs

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