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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “financial markets”

The Anatomy Of The Coming Recession

Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

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The G-Minus-2 Threat

The US-dominated G1 world is long gone, and the G2 system in which America and China shared hegemonic responsibilities is now fading into memory. In today’s G-minus-2 world, US and Chinese policies threaten to have devastating consequences for the global economy.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

Is Politics Getting To The Fed?

In the early 1980s, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, was able to choke off runaway inflation because he was afforded the autonomy necessary to implement steep interest-rate hikes. Today, the Fed is clearly under unprecedented political pressure, and it is starting to show.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

The US Economy’s Dirty Secret

There is a dirty little secret in economics today: the United States has benefited – and continues to benefit – from the global slump. The US economy is humming along, even while protesters in the United Kingdom hurl milkshakes at Brexiteers, French President Emmanuel Macron confronts nihilist yellow-vested marchers, and Chinese tech firms such as Huawei fear being frozen out of foreign markets.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

How Inflation Could Return

After years of low inflation, investors and policymakers have settled into a cyclical mindset that assumes advanced economies are simply suffering from insufficient aggregate demand. But they are ignoring structural factors at their peril.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

With Two Tweets, Trump Shatters Historic Calm In Global Markets

In the end, all it took was two tweets from Donald Trump. After weeks of warnings from many on Wall Street that price swings across global markets were too subdued, the American president’s threat to boost tariffs on China sent volatility soaring Monday.

Read Here – Bloomberg

Emerging Markets Aren’t Out Of The Woods Yet

How should emerging-market governments deal with the new original sin? One way would be to develop a large domestic institutional investor base that sets its objectives in domestic currency terms and is thus insulated from exchange-rate swings. National pension systems contribute to this goal, and many emerging-market countries, such as Chile and Mexico, have made solid progress in this direction.

Read Here – Foreign Affairs

China Says Last Year’s GDP Growth Was Worth More Than Australia’s Whole Economy

Shanghai, China – Photo courtesy: ADB/Flickr

China’s added GDP last year exceeded the value of Australia’s total output, the country’s statistics agency said as it sought to highlight the country’s economic resilience. In 2018, China’s economic growth rate slowed to the lowest level in 28 years – a fact that has fanned concerns about the country’s economic outlook.

Read Here – South China Morning Post

The Rise Of Populism Shows We Are Increasingly In A ‘Geopolitical Recession’

Financial markets must start to account for the personalities of populist world leaders, according to veteran investment banker and philanthropist John Studzinski. His comments come at a time when market participants are increasingly concerned about a serious economic slowdown, with a long-running global trade war souring business and consumer sentiment.

Read Here – CNBC

The World Economy Goes Hollywood

In the film industry, the richest and most experienced studios and producers spend vast amounts of time and money on audience research, but still have no idea if their latest creations will turn out to be hits or flops. So why be surprised if the same is true of financial markets – or, for that matter, of commodity prices, policymaking, and corporate performance?

Read Here – Project Syndicate

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