Who’s Right On Inflation?

As in the 1970s, a severe economic shock has forced governments to pursue massive fiscal and monetary expansion, thereby sowing fears of future inflation. But not all shocks are the same, and the key question now is whether we can be confident that the current state of exception will end. Read Here | Project Syndicate

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China’s Fiscal Dilemma

The Chinese government is likely to face a tricky economic policy choice in the second half of this year. If it loosens its fiscal stance, public finances will worsen significantly. But if it cuts expenditure to offset the pandemic-related revenue shortfall, growth will be lower, with dire consequences. Read Here – Project Syndicate

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India’s Dangerous Investment Gap

India’s celebrated position as the world’s fastest-growing large economy conceals a dangerous weakness: Too few people seem to want to invest in the country. Even going by the government’s growth figures, private investment is shrinking at an increasing pace — by 1.9 percent between January and March, and by 3.1 percent between April and June. Read Here […]

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India’s Growth Crossroads

As the slowdown in the world’s major industrial economies drags on, growth in developing Asia is being affected. A serious burden will likely be placed on the region’s major economies, particularly its two giants, India and China. Both countries’ external sectors have clearly been hit hard, while domestic consumption is stagnating. Fixed-asset investment in India […]

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The Long Road of U.S. Fiscal Reform

President Barack Obama in his State of the Union speech reiterated his call for a bipartisan agreement that would stabilize the debt and end a period where fiscal policy has lurched from crisis to crisis. This ambition is broadly shared, but profound disagreements remain over the composition of measures to address debt and growth. Democrats […]

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New IMF Thinking on Capital Controls Is a Good Start

The International Monetary Fund has rethought its doctrine on capital controls. The IMF, which previously favored unfettered flows of money across borders, now accepts that controls are sometimes necessary. This is a real improvement, yet it’s incomplete because it lacks a mechanism for supervision and enforcement. The fund can’t rectify that omission by itself. Member governments can and should. […]

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Why China May No Longer Be America’s No. 1 Debt Buyer

You hear it all of the time. The problem is that the government is borrowing from China to fund our stupid spending programs, or popular subsidies, or tax cuts. Mitt Romney (remember him?), in a presidential debate, defined his criterion for deciding whether spending is worthwhile thusly: “Is the program so critical it’s worth borrowing from […]

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