The second great transformation of China’s economy is underway, and it won’t happen without some pain. China’s meager GDP growth of 4.9% in the third quarter is both worse and better than it looks. Read More Here
While some major economies are recovering fast from the pandemic-induced recession, others are languishing, and still others remain in a state of acute crisis. The extent to which these global inequalities persist will depend on a range of factors, and will have profound implications for social, political, and geopolitical stability. Read Here | Project Syndicate
Many economists care more about China’s per capita GDP, or income per person, than the aggregate measure. The key takeaway is that China remains a poor country, despite its phenomenal headline economic growth over the past four decades. Read Here | Project Syndicate
It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Read Here | IMF Blog
While the US, China, and other leading economies are on their way to a robust recovery, many others are struggling to return to pre-pandemic GDP levels. In most regions, including Europe and Latin America, the 2020 recession will most likely leave long-lasting scars on both GDP and employment. Read Here | Project Syndicate
Inflation in most rich countries has been low since the 1990s, not least because of central banks’ success in lowering long-term inflation expectations. But today’s policymakers must weigh how far they can go in trying to engineer a post-pandemic recovery without unanchoring these firmly entrenched beliefs. Read Here | Project Syndicate
As in the 1970s, a severe economic shock has forced governments to pursue massive fiscal and monetary expansion, thereby sowing fears of future inflation. But not all shocks are the same, and the key question now is whether we can be confident that the current state of exception will end. Read Here | Project Syndicate
With its open and traditionally nimble economy, Singapore often plays a weathervane role for global trade trends. As such, the ill winds blowing across the city-state should worry policymakers worldwide. According to statistics released, Singapore saw a startling 12.6% annualized drop in gross domestic product (GDP) between April and June. Viewed quarter-to-quarter, GDP collapsed a whopping […]
Under the assumption that the pandemic and required containment peaks in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and recedes in the second half of this year, in the April World Economic Outlook we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, […]
