Will China And India Always Be Poorer? Probably Not

Since 1950, middle-income countries have nearly always grown faster than expected. Looking just at the past decade and a half, current middle-income countries that had an average gross national income of $2,381 in 2000 have seen that more than double, to $4,951 in 2015. U.S. income, in contrast, climbed just 15 percent over the same […]

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Trump’s Caricature Of China As A Job-Stealing Economic Bogeyman Is Past Its Expiry Date

…The version of China that Trump continues to rail against is increasingly out-of-sync with the China that exists today. Its economy, much as other developed economies have already done, has begun transitioning towards a post-industrial economy. The manufacturing boom that powered China’s economic rise over the last two decades has started to draw to a […]

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2040 Is Far Away, But No Harm In Speculating That The Indian Economy Will Be Larger Than That Of The United States

In a new report titled “The World in 2050,” consulting firm PwC projects that India’s GDP would exceed US GDP in purchasing power parity terms by 2040 (purchasing power parity accounts for the different prices levels across countries). This would make India the largest economy in the world after China. Read Here – Quartz

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India’s Got A Reputation Problem

One of the least enviable jobs in the world at the moment has to be that of Indian finance minister. Arun Jaitley will present his fourth annual budget to India’s Parliament on Wednesday amid terrible headwinds — mostly caused by his government’s bewildering and disruptive decision to invalidate 86 percent of India’s currency last November. […]

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India’s Dangerous Investment Gap

India’s celebrated position as the world’s fastest-growing large economy conceals a dangerous weakness: Too few people seem to want to invest in the country. Even going by the government’s growth figures, private investment is shrinking at an increasing pace — by 1.9 percent between January and March, and by 3.1 percent between April and June. Read Here […]

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How China Fell Off The Miracle Path

For years now, Donald J. Trump has been sounding the alarm on China, calling it an economic bully that has been “eating our lunch.” The crux of Mr. Trump’s attack is that Beijing manipulates its currency to keep it cheap and give Chinese exports an unfair advantage. But that narrative is so last decade. China […]

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Twilight Of The Petrostate

The new generation of the petrostates’ political elite has come to look on oil rent as a means to achieve all its goals. And yet, many experts will call the oil windfall a curse, not a blessing. A prosperity that is due to the sheer accident of owning large mineral resources rather than to technological […]

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