A tepid U.S. reaction could leave Beijing with the impression that it can proceed with relative impunity on other contentious issues in Asia. The shadow of Taiwan looms large in this context.Unless the United States demonstrates the resolve and ability to resist Chinese coercion and aggression, China’s leaders may eventually conclude that the risks and the costs of future military action against Taiwan are low—or at least tolerable.
Millions of Hongkongers eligible for British National (Overseas) passports, their spouses and underage children will be allowed to resettle in the UK and given a path to British citizenship, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday. The historic change to the rights of Hongkongers born during the colonial era was announced hours after China officially imposed a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong.
China’s President Xi Jinping has signed into law a controversial national security legislation for Hong Kong that Beijing says is necessary to deal with separatism and foreign interference but critics say will outlaw dissent and destroy the autonomy promised when the territory was returned to China in 1997.
China has taken advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been dominating headlines around the world, to reinforce its grasp on the South China Sea. While Western media is now preoccupied by the U.S. protests, Beijing will likely continue to take advantage of the fact that the eyes of the world remain focused elsewhere.
China’s decision to demolish the “one country, two systems” arrangement in Hong Kong appears to be a fait accompli, and in fact seems to have been preordained. Viewed in a broader context, the move represents a major salvo in a new cold war that is already playing out across three critical dimensions.
Relations between China and Britain are fraying amid growing concerns among British politicians about China’s economic influence and Hong Kong. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s tougher stance reflects increasing cross-party scepticism, while Chinese diplomats have not contradicted media reports that Beijing would retaliate if Chinese business activities are limited.
The Trump administration’s declaration that the United States no longer considers Hong Kong autonomous from China, given Beijing’s increasingly aggressive policies there, could pave the way for reprisals from Washington and a potentially dramatic reshaping of Asia’s economic geography. The U.S. announcement was made a day before China’s parliament approved a new security law for the semi-autonomous region that gave Beijing broad powers to crush dissent there.
Also Read: ASEAN, India Unlikely To Pressure Beijing Over Hong Kong National Security Law
The burst of communications was unusual. While Chinese diplomats have spoken publicly before on big issues such as the China-US trade war and the Belt and Road Initiative, it had not been on such a scale. Observers said the effort was an attempt to shape international opinion about the unrest in Hong Kong, but no matter how united the approach, the campaign was unlikely to be effective.
Just what form “struggle” will take in Hong Kong remains uncertain. In the end, Xi must make the difficult choice between his political instincts: crack down on Hong Kong’s unruly dissenters and bring them to heel or tolerate an uncomfortable degree of continued autonomy as the price of preserving the city’s important role in the Chinese economy—especially regarding financial links to the outside world. He can’t have both.
