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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “interest rates”

The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis

The new central bank network created since 2008 is of a piece with the new networks for stress testing and regulating the world’s systemically important banks. The international economy they regulate is not one made up of a jigsaw puzzle of national economies, each with its gross national product and national trade flows. Instead they oversee, regulate and act on the interlocking, transnational matrix of bank balance sheets. This system was put in place without fanfare. It was essential to containing the crisis, and so far it has operated effectively. But to make this technical financial network into the foundation for a new global order is a gamble.

Read Here – Prospect

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Rest Assured. China Has Its Economy’s Back

The People’s Bank of China has surprised many with its tolerance for market pain as it squeezes leverage in parts of the financial system. But rest assured, China won’t clamp down so hard it endangers President Xi Jinping’s goal to keep growth above 6.5 percent, according to economists from Morgan Stanley, Mizuho Securities and Oxford Economics.

Read Here – Bloomberg

The Battle Of Three Centuries

Twenty years ago next month, the British government gave the Bank of England the freedom to set interest rates. That decision was part of a trend that made central bankers the most powerful financial actors on the planet, not only setting rates but also buying trillions of dollars’ worth of assets, targeting exchange rates and managing the economic cycle. Although central banks have great independence now, the tide could turn again.

Read Here – The Economist

The Janet Yellen Era Starts Here

Ultimately, however, it won’t be Yellen’s P.R. skills that determine how she is remembered. It will be her economic judgment, and her confidence in the enduring strength and vigor of a revived U.S. economy.

Read Here – The New Yorker

Fed Raises Rates, But Smooth Liftoff Doesn’t Signal Mission Accomplished

The Federal Reserve deserves praise for managing once again to carry out a tricky transition without causing disruptions in financial markets and creating too much risk for the real economy. Sustaining this success will require more than just the central bank’s continued responsive policy making, Mohamed El-Erian writes for Bloomberg.

Read Here – Bloomberg

We Live In A Bearish World

At HSBC’s global investment seminar in New York last week, some of the top strategists from Europe’s largest bank laid out their outlook for global markets and economies.
Many strategists are not expecting the current recovery from the financial crisis to be as impressive as what has come before, while some investors aren’t expecting double-digit returns in the near term.
Additionally, strategists are losing faith that the Federal Reserve will actually raise interest rates anytime soon.
Read Here – Business Insider

“God Gave You Everything. And Then, He Also Gave You Delhi To Mess It All Up”

Commodities trading guru and hedge fund manager Jim Rogers has sold his holdings in Indian companies and exited India because, he says, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government has failed to live up to investors’ expectations.

Read Here – Mint

China Has Lots of Treasuries, Not Much Leverage

During the last U.S. presidential election, an editorial in a Chinese state-run newspaper declared that if Washington insisted on flouting Chinese interests (by selling arms to Taiwan, for example), Beijing should “use its financial weapon to teach the U.S. a lesson.” Three years later, America owes even more to China than the $1.16 trillion it owed then. But the increase in debt holdings hasn’t translated to an increase in leverage; quite the opposite, writes William Pesak.

Read Here – BloombergView

China: The New Spanish Empire?

Since the dawn of capitalism, closed societies with repressive governments have — much like China — been capable of remarkable growth and innovation. Sixteenth-century Spain was a great imperial power, with a massive navy and extensive industry such as shipbuilding and mining. One could say the same thing about Louis XIV’s France during the 17th century, which also had vast wealth, burgeoning industry and a sprawling empire. But both countries were also secretive, absolute monarchies, and they found themselves thrust into competition with the freer countries Holland and Great Britain.

Read Here – Politico

Are China’s GDP Numbers Believable?

Almost immediately after the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released its second quarter GDP growth estimate of 7 percent in mid-July, a group of China watchers were crying foul. China officially targeted full-year growth of around 7 percent in 2015, a number matched exactly by its reported GDP figures for the first half of the year.

Read Here – The Diplomat

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