In 2022, a confluence of shocks reduced economic growth and simultaneously boosted inflation, causing investors to flee to dollar-denominated assets. Now, as fears about inflation and monetary policy begin to abate, the dollar should start to depreciate, adding a bright spot to the global growth outlook. Read More Here
After two years of quantitative easing, central banks have begun to shrink their balance sheets, and liquidity seems to have vanished in the space of just a few months – revealing acute financial-system vulnerabilities. Read More Here
Just as a fixation on core inflation can mislead central banks, as it has done with the US Federal Reserve, the power of a “core leader” like China’s Xi Jinping is a recipe for misdirected and ultimately unsustainable policy regimes. Read More Here
The release of data showing that the US economy has contracted for two quarters in a row has triggered an intense semantic debate among economists, pundits, and political operatives. The Biden administration and many commentators are at pains to deny that the US is in a recession, but history is not on their side. Read […]
With fiscal policy having gained fresh prominence, governments must carefully calibrate their policies in the pandemic’s aftermath. Read More Here
Federal Reserve officials have indicated they expect to soon slow the asset purchases they have been using to support the U.S. economy and predicted they might raise interest rates next year. Read More Here
Though they have received most of the attention, supply bottlenecks are hardly the only factor to consider when assessing the recent surge of inflation. Far more important are broader structural changes in the economy and the alarmingly complacent attitude of central banks. Read More Here
Emerging and developing economies are viewing rising interest rates with trepidation. Most of them are facing a slower economic recovery than advanced economies because of longer waits for vaccines and limited space for their own fiscal stimulus. Now, capital inflows to emerging markets have shown signs of drying up. Read Here | IMF Blog
Inflation in most rich countries has been low since the 1990s, not least because of central banks’ success in lowering long-term inflation expectations. But today’s policymakers must weigh how far they can go in trying to engineer a post-pandemic recovery without unanchoring these firmly entrenched beliefs. Read Here | Project Syndicate
After committing to monetary-policy normalization in 2018, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank spent the past year reversing course with further interest-rate cuts and liquidity injections. Yet, given mounting medium-term uncertainties, central bankers cannot assume calm conditions in 2020. Read Here – Project Syndicate
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