Where Is The Magic Wand?

There’s good news and bad in China’s loss of traction. The good: It will compel President Xi Jinping to end China’s addiction to easy credit and local-government debt, a recipe that’s now causing more bubbles than growth. The bad: Global markets may not be ready for the ugly data about to emanate from an economy […]

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It’s A 7.5 Percent Bummer, Folks, No More

China’s economy grew 7.7 percent in 2013, overshooting the official target of 7.5 percent, But a shaky start this year, as shown in soft manufacturing activity, has put the focus on how the government will pace and sequence its overhauls while guaranteeing solid growth amid the world’s fragile recovery. Economic growth predicted for 2014 at […]

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The Problem Of Juicing

Fueled by a huge surge in government “mini-stimulus” lending in the second half of the year, China’s GDP increased by a higher-than-expected 7.7% for 2013 (link in Chinese) according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not: essentially the government freaked out at the prospect of missing its 7.5% target, and overshot […]

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Fading Headwinds

Ben S. Bernanke says the headwinds that have held back the U.S. economy may be abating, leaving the country poised for faster growth as his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman comes to an end. Read Here – Bloomberg

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…And Whatever Happened To Emerging Markets?

When the U.S. financial system crashed in 2008, market watchers were increasingly romancing the idea of a “decoupling” that would separate emerging-market fortunes from those of the subprime-hobbled U.S. Such economies as Brazil’s and China’s, the thinking went, had the demographics and national balance sheets to keep growing and wowing as America foundered. Never happened. Read […]

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China’s Hidden Unemployment Crisis

The reality is China’s official urban unemployment rate has long been a near-worthless measure. Even during the global financial crisis in 2009, when tens of millions of workers in China’s export factories lost their jobs, the official rate barely stirred, and it has been moving between just under 4 percent and 4.3 percent for most […]

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