Power Struggle Begins in Iran As Election Looms

On June 14, Iran will hold a presidential election. If the acrimony and fraud of the 2009 election was not enough to cast a pall over this vote, then the ongoing power struggle between Supreme Leader Aytollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad surely is. Term limits prevent Ahmadinejad from running for reelection, but he […]

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Arab Troubled Transitions Are Normal

Agreeing on the combination of these issues – statehood, nationhood, sovereignty and governance – comprises the classic definition of national self-determination. Arab citizens have never had the opportunity to undergo the thrills of national self-determination. This is because Arab countries and governing systems have always been defined either by foreign powers or by very small […]

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Obama’s Middle East Strategy

More than two years after the Arab uprisings began, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that U.S. policy toward the Middle East is more or less the same as it was before. Whether it is Secretary of State John Kerry effusively praisingregimes and failing to muster even a sentence of criticism; the unwillingness to condition economic […]

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The Myth of Dirty Russian Money

It is not entirely clear yet when and how the Cyprus banking crisis will be resolved. But what is clear is that numerous institutional and individual Russian clients of at least two of Cyprus’ largest banks will incur serious losses because of frozen and lost assets. What lessons for the future can be learned already? The Cyprus banking crisis revealed just how deeply Russian business […]

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The Syrian Muddle And The United States

So has the time finally come when America and its allies will take action, send in the bombers, declare a no-fly zone? It seems not. For there is a matching shout from the West: “It’s Iraq all over again.” Indeed, if there are any polls suggesting intervention would be a vote-winner, governments across the world […]

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What If We Never Run Out of Oil?

As the great research ship Chikyu left Shimizu in January to mine the explosive ice beneath the Philippine Sea, chances are good that not one of the scientists aboard realized they might be closing the door on Winston Churchill’s world. Their lack of knowledge is unsurprising; beyond the ranks of petroleum-industry historians, Churchill’s outsize role in the history […]

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Inching Closer To Engagement In Syria

The White House finally made it official last week: Yes, the civil war in Syria is a slippery slope and yes the US is on it. Nobody in the Obama administration actually used those words, of course, but if you paid attention to what officials said, it was clear that President Barack Obama has reluctantly […]

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Dreaming The Turkish Dream

Turkish self-confidence is high these days – perhaps higher than ever in the history of the modern republic founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk envisioned a pro-western and strictly secular nation-state that would look towards “contemporary civilizations” –that is, Europe –and turn its back on 500 years of coexistence with Arabs. Today’s Turkish leaders yearn […]

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Does Obama Want War With Iran?

First, and most importantly, while Obama seems willing to go to war with Iran, if he feels he must, he appears far from eager to do so. When George W. Bush talked about finding a peaceful solution to America’s stand-off with Iraq, one that would not involve regime change or the use of force, it […]

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