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Archive for the tag “National Intelligence Council”

Transatlantic Free Trade?

This month, the United States National Intelligence Council released a sobering report entitled Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Most important, according to the authors, if current trends continue, Asia could soon surpass North America and Europe in global power. It will have a higher GDP, larger population, higher military spending, and more technological investment. In this geopolitical context, Europe and the US need each other more than ever, making greater transatlantic cooperation crucial.

Read Here – Project syndicate

China Is The Elephant In The Situation Room

Earlier this month the National Intelligence Council released its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report — a document that comes out once per presidential administration — mapping out likely geopolitical trends over the next two decades or so. As usual, it’s a must-read, offering comprehensive analysis of the disparate factors that will drive global politics through 2030.

Further, the NIC took bold steps to correct some previous weaknesses in past reports. In the past the report nailed the “what” more often than the “when.” That is particularly the case with its treatment of the United States, for which “past works assumed U.S. centrality.” This time around the NIC sets an increasingly “multi-polar world” — which I call the G-Zero — as the backdrop of its report, acknowledging that the lack of global leadership has accelerated in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. America’s status as a “hegemonic power” is eroding, and no country is likely to take its place.

Read Here – Reuters

China Stresses Peaceful Development After US Report

China stressed its adherence to peaceful development in response to a U.S. intelligence report predicting that China will surpass the United States to become the world’s largest economy before 2030.

“China will unswervingly pursue a way of peaceful development. China’s development aims at making greater contributions toward peace and development of mankind, as well as a happy life for its people, instead of overwhelming others or scrambling for world dominance,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei.

Hong made the remarks at a regular press briefing while commenting on the report “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” issued on Monday by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, an analytical arm of the government’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

The report said China’s economy is likely to surpass that of the United States a few years before 2030; however, it added that China may not replace the United States on a global level. “Despite the remarkable achievements made since reform and opening-up, China is still the world’s biggest developing country and has a long way to go in realizing socialist modernization. We have a clear understanding of that,” the spokesman said.

Read Here – China Daily

Four ‘Megatrends’ Reshaping the World: U.S. Intelligence

New technologies, dwindling resources and explosive population growth in the next 18 years will alter the global balance of power and trigger radical economic and political changes at a speed unprecedented in modern history, says a new report by the U.S. intelligence community.

The 140-page report released today by the National Intelligence Council lays out dangers and opportunities for nations, economies, investors, political systems and leaders due to four “megatrends” that government intelligence analysts say are transforming the world.

Those major trends are the end of U.S. global dominance, the rising power of individuals against states, a rising middle class whose demands challenge governments, and a Gordian knot of water, food and energy shortages, according to the analysts.

 

Read Here – Businessweek

 

Strategic Error

When the Big Picture misses the point.

Read Here – Foreignpolicy.com

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