Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) now stands alone at the top of the hierarchy, but he has lost many constituencies that allow him to rule without resorting to direct force. This situation is unsustainable and even dangerous. There’s been a serious erosion of regime legitimacy, and this is leading to a slow implosion from within.
The legal status of the Caspian Sea has remained unresolved for nearly 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But now, the leaders of the five countries bordering the world’s biggest enclosed body of water have finally made significant headway after agreeing — at least, in principle — on how to divvy up its potentially vast oil and gas resources.
Making inroads into Iran has become a priority for both China and India, with both nations seeking to expand influence in their respective regions. Located at a critical juncture, Iran links Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East. Furthermore, Iran’s abundant resources provide a significant amount of energy to China and India.
U.S. foreign policy toward Iran is approaching a “back to the future” moment, with the Trump White House resurrecting the strategy pursued by President George W. Bush (and, for a while, President Barack Obama) of pressuring Iran economically into abandoning its nuclear pursuits.
As the first wave of renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran goes into effect Tuesday amid rising street protests over the country’s disastrous economy, analysts are divided about whether popular anger over runaway inflation and unemployment will be directed at the government in Tehran—or at the United States.
Having withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), literally rattled a few sabers, and approved record-breaking weapons sales to the Gulf monarchies, President Donald Trump is now pronouncing himself happy to meet with Iran’s leaders without preconditions. While such a meeting would be as unprecedented as June’s summit with Kim Jong-un in Singapore, it would also be equally empty.
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President Donald Trump’s ALL-CAPS Twitter threat against Iran—“CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED”—feels like a cut-and-paste job from his approach to North Korea. Apply sanctions, make irresponsible suggestion of Armageddon, see what happens.
Also Read: The Real Threat to America: Iran May Close the Strait of Hormuz
India’s need for oil and gas imports from Iran provides only a partial explanation of New Delhi’s desire to preserve good relations with that country. Iran is the third largest source of oil imports for India behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq and a significant supplier of natural gas. But India’s interest in cultivating Iran goes beyond its need for imported energy.
For the better part of two decades, Iran’s leadership has been hedging against international isolation by developing deeper ties with China and Russia. Today, as Washington once again seeks to tighten the screws, Tehran sees its relationship with Beijing as key to remaining afloat.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is not giving in to conservative and reformist critics in the wake of growing protests over the miserable state of Iran’s economy, instead intensifying his campaign against “shady interests” and a “culture of opacity.” Rouhani, in an explicit speech June 27, demonstrated his determination to resist and confront his opponents, calling for national unity in the face of rising external pressures.
