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Archive for the tag “pandemic”

Are We Risking A Debt Pandemic?

The prospect of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis makes it all the more urgent to have a firm vision of how the burden of public debt can be reduced once the coronavirus has been vanquished. For this reason, every country must work on itself and strive to maintain budgetary discipline.

Read Here | Project Syndicate

Will The Boom Last?

After last year’s economic collapse, the prospects for a strong cyclical recovery have always been strong. And judging by a series of must-watch high-frequency indicators, the long-awaited boom has arrived and seems likely to continue building – at least in the near term.

Read Here | Project Syndicate

Stronger Recovery Seen For Global Economy, Says IMF

Managing Divergent Recoveries

It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible.

Read Here | IMF Blog

The Global Economy’s Uneven Recovery

Photo by Ehud Neuhas on Unsplash

While the US, China, and other leading economies are on their way to a robust recovery, many others are struggling to return to pre-pandemic GDP levels. In most regions, including Europe and Latin America, the 2020 recession will most likely leave long-lasting scars on both GDP and employment.

Read Here | Project Syndicate

The New Age Of Protectionism

With vaccine access and national security at stake, wealthy democratic governments have pushed liberal market principles aside in favor of aggressive restrictions aimed at meeting new internal political demands. Their self-interested behavior is fraying alliances and normalizing open state intervention in global markets to a degree not seen in recent memory. 

Read Here | Foreign Affairs

How Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Emerging Markets

Emerging and developing economies are viewing rising interest rates with trepidation. Most of them are facing a slower economic recovery than advanced economies because of longer waits for vaccines and limited space for their own fiscal stimulus. Now, capital inflows to emerging markets have shown signs of drying up. 

Read Here | IMF Blog

Slow-Healing Scars: The Pandemic’s Legacy

Recessions wreak havoc and the damage is often long-lived. Businesses shut down, investment spending is cut, and people out of work can lose skills and motivation as the months stretch on. But the recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic is no ordinary recession. Compared to previous global crises, the contraction was sudden and deep—using quarterly data, global output declined about three times as much as in the global financial crisis, in half the time.

Read Here | IMF Blog

Global Economy Gets COVID-19 Shot From US Stimulus, But Pre-Existing Conditions Worsen

The global economy is set to grow by 4.7% this year, faster than predicted in September (4.3%), thanks in part to a stronger recovery in the United States, where progress in distributing vaccines and a fresh fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion are expected to boost consumer spending, says a new UNCTAD report. But this will still leave the global economy over $10 trillion short of where it could have been by the end of 2021 if it had stayed on the pre-pandemic trend (Figure 1) and with persistent worries about the reality behind the rhetoric of a more resilient future.

Read Here | UNCTAD

Figure 1
Figure 1: (left) World output level, 2017-2021 (2019 = 100);
(right) Accumulated real income loss relative to pre-Covid-19 trend, 2020-2021 (% of GDP)

The Pandemic Stalls Growth In Global Middle Class, Pushes Poverty Up Sharply

A new Pew Research Center analysis finds that the global middle class encompassed 54 million fewer people in 2020 than the number projected prior to the onset of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the number of poor is estimated to have been 131 million higher because of the recession. The drop-off in the global middle class was centered in South Asia and in East Asia and the Pacific, and it stalled the expansion seen in the years preceding the pandemic. 

Read Here | Pew Research Center

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