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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “Population growth”

Getting Old: Lessons From Japan

It is interesting to take a look at some of the consequences of population decline that may lie ahead for Japan, particularly since, while Japan may be at the forefront of this trend, it is only one of many countries that will experience population decline over the coming decades.  In East Asia, Korea has a total fertility rate (TFR)—estimated at 1.23 for 2012—that is roughly similar to Japan’s and China’s TFRs, which are estimated at 1.39 and 1.55 for 2012 respectively.  All of these are well below the replacement rate of 2.1 that is needed to simply maintain the current population size.  This problem is not limited to East Asia; many European countries have very low TFRs and even parts of the developing world are experiencing declining TFRs.

Read Here – The Diplomat

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For Better Planning, Watch Global Demographic Trends

An understanding of demographic trends can assist governments in targeting policies for the future and saving money for education, retirement, taxes, healthcare, distribution of natural resources, and more. More importantly, targeted policies can ease resentment emerging over demographic imbalances. The globe can anticipate an additional 1 billion people by 2025 – a total of 8 billion – and demographer Joseph Chamie lists seven trends. Most of the globe’s annual population growth will be in less developed nations, while more than half the world’s gross domestic product is from the most developed nations. The percentage growth of the aged will be fourfold that of the working class. More people are concentrated in urban areas, many along coastlines and vulnerable to rising seas and other repercussions of climate change. Global fertility rates continue to decline, but rates still vary among nations. Such trends suggest many imbalances, between young and old, poor and wealthy, that will spur immigration. Economic uncertainty is no excuse for policy stalemates in the face of demography’s relative certainty. Shifting demographics demand policy responses – the sooner, the better. – YaleGlobal

 

Read Here – YaleGlobal

 

Four ‘Megatrends’ Reshaping the World: U.S. Intelligence

New technologies, dwindling resources and explosive population growth in the next 18 years will alter the global balance of power and trigger radical economic and political changes at a speed unprecedented in modern history, says a new report by the U.S. intelligence community.

The 140-page report released today by the National Intelligence Council lays out dangers and opportunities for nations, economies, investors, political systems and leaders due to four “megatrends” that government intelligence analysts say are transforming the world.

Those major trends are the end of U.S. global dominance, the rising power of individuals against states, a rising middle class whose demands challenge governments, and a Gordian knot of water, food and energy shortages, according to the analysts.

 

Read Here – Businessweek

 

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