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Archive for the tag “recession”

The Anatomy Of The Coming Recession

Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

The Growing Risk Of A Global Recession And Crisis In 2020

Beyond the US, the fragility of growth in debt-ridden China and some other emerging markets remains a concern, as do economic, policy, financial and political risks in Europe. Worse, across the advanced economies, the policy toolbox for responding to a crisis remains limited. The monetary and fiscal interventions and private-sector backstops used after the 2008 financial crisis simply cannot be deployed to the same effect today.

Read Here – Mint

The Rise Of Populism Shows We Are Increasingly In A ‘Geopolitical Recession’

Financial markets must start to account for the personalities of populist world leaders, according to veteran investment banker and philanthropist John Studzinski. His comments come at a time when market participants are increasingly concerned about a serious economic slowdown, with a long-running global trade war souring business and consumer sentiment.

Read Here – CNBC

China’s Coming Financial Crisis And The National Security Connection

The biggest national security issues, however, arise from the unpredictable political impact of a recession in China. We learned this, or should have, during the 1997 to 1998 Asian crisis. China may have had a disguised recession or near recession in 1998, but it was in a much smaller economy. Apart from that one episode there is no collective memory of recession and how to deal with it. As such, China is now psychologically unprepared to deal with the challenges of a recession.

Read Here – War On The Rocks

Globally, More Name U.S. Than China as World’s Leading Economic Power

The past decade has witnessed significant changes in the global economy as many nations around the world have struggled with the Great Recession and its aftereffects. While the United States and other relatively wealthy Western nations have slowly bounced back from the crisis, economic growth rates have been low compared with those of China, India and other emerging economies. Still, the prevailing view among publics around the world is that the U.S. is the top global economic power.

Read Here – Pew Research

Five Economic Lessons From Obama’s Presidency

obama1-2016

As he leaves office, Obama’s enormous economic accomplishments are tempered with the recognition of foregone opportunities. Disappointment among certain segments of the population has fueled the politics of anger and social divisions that go well beyond what would be expected and warranted based on actual economic performance.

Read Here – Bloomberg

Beijing Desperately Needs A Recession To Shift The Economy

Recession is the part of the cycle is where you say, “Ouch, got that wrong somewhere, it seems. Let’s think about this again. Perhaps we should do things a bit differently next time. Let’s work out how while we have time on our hands with things so slow just now.”

Read Here – South China Morning Post

China Has No Good Plan to Deal With Its Achilles Heel

Beijing has yet to put together a credible response as to what should be done with zombie companies, the huge swath of unprofitable state-owned enterprises surviving on the good will of the Chinese government. Until it does, private companies in the world’s second-largest economy will continue to fight an uphill battle for growth, and China’s reform efforts will share a key characteristic with the mythical creature in question: not dead, but not really alive.

Read Here – Bloomberg

Russians Are Facing A Stark Choice

Russia’s recession, then, will be sharper, longer, and more painful than initially anticipated. And it’s not just because of the “meddlesome” West or its financial sanctions. Russia is squarely in the crosshairs of some ongoing changes in the world economy, changes that are going to make the next few years a lot more challenging than the past few.

Read Here – The Moscow Times

China May Tip World Into Recession

Forget about all the shoes, toys and other exports. China may soon have another thing to offer the world: a recession. That is the prediction from Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, who says a continuation of China’s slowdown in the next years may drag global economic growth below 2 percent, a threshold he views as equivalent to a world recession. It would be the first global slump over the past 50 years without the U.S. contracting.

Read Here – Bloomberg

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