Threatening the world with a long recession, the coronavirus looks set to inaugurate a turbulent new political and economic era. Its main tendencies will become visible over the months and years to come. But the most revolutionary shift is already in sight. The state, much maligned in recent decades, is back, and in its fundamental role: as Leviathan, the […]
The combination of a coronavirus-induced growth slowdown and worldwide financial panic means that a global recession this year is virtually certain. But recession might soon be the least of our worries…As long as US President Donald Trump remains in office, it is difficult to envisage any credible international effort to resolve the financial crisis caused […]
Policymakers and too many economic commentators fail to grasp how the next global recession may be unlike the last two. In contrast to recessions driven mainly by a demand shortfall, the challenge posed by a supply-side-driven downturn is that it can result in sharp drops in production, generalised shortages, and rapidly rising prices. Read Here […]
Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option. Read Here – […]
Beyond the US, the fragility of growth in debt-ridden China and some other emerging markets remains a concern, as do economic, policy, financial and political risks in Europe. Worse, across the advanced economies, the policy toolbox for responding to a crisis remains limited. The monetary and fiscal interventions and private-sector backstops used after the 2008 […]
Financial markets must start to account for the personalities of populist world leaders, according to veteran investment banker and philanthropist John Studzinski. His comments come at a time when market participants are increasingly concerned about a serious economic slowdown, with a long-running global trade war souring business and consumer sentiment. Read Here – CNBC
The biggest national security issues, however, arise from the unpredictable political impact of a recession in China. We learned this, or should have, during the 1997 to 1998 Asian crisis. China may have had a disguised recession or near recession in 1998, but it was in a much smaller economy. Apart from that one episode […]
The past decade has witnessed significant changes in the global economy as many nations around the world have struggled with the Great Recession and its aftereffects. While the United States and other relatively wealthy Western nations have slowly bounced back from the crisis, economic growth rates have been low compared with those of China, India […]
As he leaves office, Obama’s enormous economic accomplishments are tempered with the recognition of foregone opportunities. Disappointment among certain segments of the population has fueled the politics of anger and social divisions that go well beyond what would be expected and warranted based on actual economic performance. Read Here – Bloomberg
Recession is the part of the cycle is where you say, “Ouch, got that wrong somewhere, it seems. Let’s think about this again. Perhaps we should do things a bit differently next time. Let’s work out how while we have time on our hands with things so slow just now.” Read Here – South China […]
looking beyond borders 