Turkey’s shift toward a more authoritarian system under Erdogan will no doubt elicit further condemnation from the European Union, but European powers also understand that they still need Turkey’s cooperation in containing migrant traffic and in keeping a check on Russia.
The febrile behavior of financial markets ahead of the United Kingdom’s referendum on June 23 on whether to remain in the European Union shows that the outcome will influence economic and political conditions around the world far more profoundly than Britain’s roughly 2.4% share of global GDP might suggest. There are three reasons for this outsize impact.
The approaching referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain in or leave the European Union marks a defining moment for the country’s foreign relations. In addition to determining the UK’s future status in Europe, it will affect Britain’s ability to thrive in and help shape a rapidly changing world.
It’s easy to moralize Greece’s feckless borrowing, weak tax collection and long history of default, and hey, go ahead; I won’t stop you. But whatever the nation’s moral failures, what we’re witnessing now shows the dangers of trying to cure the problems of weak fiscal discipline with some sort of externally imposed currency regime.
It’s not England from which many Scots wish to detach themselves. It’s London, the oversize hub controlling the revenue of an undersize empire. The Scots’ prickliness is understandable, and an untethered Scotland would satisfy the romantic yearnings of nationalism—Braveheart without the gore. Outright independence, however, would rupture valuable commercial ties for uncertain benefits.
As David Cameron entered the Commons at the end of a morning that began with his speech on Europe, his backbenchers did something they rarely do these days. They cheered him to the echo. Moments earlier the Conservative chairman, Grant Shapps, had announced on TV that the Europe speech had united the party. The sight of so many delighted Tory MPs, many of whom have become minor political celebrities by making the prime minister’s life miserable, seemed to suggest Shapps was right.
Looked at more carefully, however, it was a sight that brought to mind the famous words of Sir Robert Walpole, declaring war on Spain in 1739: “They now ring the bells, but they will soon wring their hands.” Or a scene that recalled something Tony Blair was fond of saying in the more recent past: “The British people may have their prejudices, but they get very uneasy when their politicians start to share them.”
A referendum on Britain’s EU membership is likely. And if the country secedes, others could soon follow its example.
