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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “sanctions”

Breaking A Big Deal

We are left with a region where the Iranians and Saudis will have no more opportunities to cooperate to resolve regional crises, starting with those in Syria and Yemen. Which means, that in the near future, the US, the Europeans and other parties involved in the geo-political game of the Middle East will be left with a difficult choice: Military action against Iran and its proxies, or living with a nuclear-armed hegemonic Iran.

Read Here – The Indian Express

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Why A Mystery Armoured Train Could Hold The Key To Kim Jong-Un’s Rumoured Visit To China

The mysterious armoured train that arrived in Beijing on Monday night is one of the main pieces of evidence to support the theory that Kim Jong-un is making a historic visit to China. While Beijing has yet to confirm Kim is in Beijing, the arrival of the train coupled with reports of heightened security at a state guest house and along the Chinese border with North Korea, all point towards a visit by a senior figure from Pyongyang.

Read Here – South China Morning Post

Also Read:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un leaves Beijing after surprise visit

What Xi Jinping needs to hear from Kim Jong-un in China

Kim’s Nukes Aren’t a Bargaining Chip. They’re an Insurance Policy

North Korea looks pretty scary at the moment, firing off missile after missile, threatening to target Guam, and, on Sept. 3, testing what the regime claims was its first hydrogen bomb. And the country’s dictator, Kim Jong Un—so ruthless he may have had members of his own family murdered—might be just crazy enough to push the button to initiate a catastrophic war. Or maybe not.

Read Here – Bloomberg

The US Balance-of-Power Strategy In The Gulf Is Collapsing. But It Never Had A Chance Anyway

The ongoing dispute between Qatar and the rest of Arab Gulf Cooperation Council represents perhaps the greatest internal threat to the group since it was created as a bulwark against Shi’a radicalism in the aftermath of the 1979 Iranian revolution. The split all but eliminates any prospect that the United States could forge a regional – let alone an international – coalition to contain and roll back what many consider Iran’s growing regional clout.

Read Here – Defense One

For China’s Global Ambitions, ‘Iran Is At The Center Of Everything’

Once dependent on Beijing during the years of international isolation imposed by the West for its nuclear program, Iran is now critical to China’s ability to realize its grandiose ambitions. Other routes to Western markets are longer and lead through Russia, potentially a competitor of China.

Read Here – The New York Times

The Secret Documents That Help Explain The Qatar Crisis

Qatar made a series of secret agreements with its Gulf neighbours in 2013 and 2014 barring support for opposition and hostile groups in those nations, as well as in Egypt and Yemen. The existence of the agreements has been known, but both the content and the documents themselves were kept secret due to the sensitivity of the issues involved and the fact that they were agreed in private by heads of state,.

Read Here – CNN

OPEC, Russian sanctions and Iran: What could Trump do to oil?

A Trump victory could be followed by a rapprochement with Russia. This could mean lifting of Treasury sanctions on the Kremlin and a boost to investment in Russian energy assets. Does any of that sound bullish to the oil price? More investment in Russian infrastructure surely means more oil capacity from the world’s largest producer, no? On the other hand, Donald Trump opposes the Iranian nuclear deal, and there is a real risk that he refuses to certify Iranian compliance… likely resulting in extraterritorial congressional sanctions snapping back, which could curb the enthusiasm of foreign companies looking to invest in Iran’s energy sector.

Read Here – CNBC

Iran’s Financial Long Game To Beat The Nuclear Deal

Iran’s heavy reliance on project financing arrangements will have consequences that far outlive the initial terms of the Iranian nuclear agreement, while creating a potentially unique set of incentives for the various parties in the event Iran defaults on its commitments or resorts to old patterns at the expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Read Here – The National Interest

Has Summer Brought A New Optimism About The Russian Economy?

Markets have soared: the ruble is the best-performing emerging market currency this year, up over 20 percent since late January against the dollar, and equities have posted double-digit gains. Russian markets have benefited from a range of macroeconomic and technical factors—a moderate pickup in oil prices, a search for yield by investors punished by low or negative interest rates in the industrial world, and a sense that the worst effects of the sanctions are in the past.

Read Here – cfr,org

The Political Implications Of Transforming Saudi And Iranian Oil Economies

Since the conclusion of the Iranian nuclear deal last July, the perennial antagonism between Riyadh and Tehran has reached a dangerous pitch, fuelling the violence that rages in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen and the undercurrent of instability that saturates the region.

Read Here – Brookings

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