Iran’s Rouhani Officially Begins Second Term

Rouhani is obviously not the same president-elect as he was in 2013. He now appears to be ready to draw his own road map in front of both friends and foes — including Khamenei. All of Rouhani’s men were at the ceremony, as were his rivals, from his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to his most recent conservative presidential competitor, Ebrahim […]

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A Dangerous Gulf In The Horn: How The Inter-Arab Crisis Is Fuelling Regional Tensions

The Gulf and the Horn are intricately intertwined regions that face common threats and vulnerabilities: armed conflict, transnational jihadism and organised crime, including piracy, human trafficking and money laundering. The current crisis comes at a difficult moment for the historically conflict-prone Horn, much of which is either politically unstable, mired in internal armed conflict or […]

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OPEC’s Game-Theory Dilemma

To win the price-setting game, oil producers need to address two related issues: They must maintain prices at a relatively high level without losing more market share to nontraditional producers, and they need to retain unity amid geopolitical tensions and disparities in domestic economic and financial situations. Read Here – BloombergView

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Palace Intrigues In The Desert Kingdom

The new Crown Prince has established close ties with President Trump, his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and the administration’s senior security officials, who see the prince as a moderniser and a solid ally against Iran. This is an important partnership since the prince will need all the help he can get in those uncertain days when […]

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Saudis Losing Oil War As Iran Gains Power

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) policies toward Yemen, Syria, Qatar, and Iran are failing. But the policy toward Iran shows the kingdom’s desperate attempt to lessen the Islamic republic’s growing power. The KSA is trying to choke Iran’s economy by steeply cutting its own oil output, hoping to halt Iran’s overtures to international businesses. […]

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This Is How Great-Power Wars Get Started

The present political dynamics in the Middle East are unsettled and kaleidoscopic. But in the interests of brevity, leaving aside smaller players, and before we think about the role of the United States and Russia, the basic configurations of power in the region since the 2011 Arab Spring can be simplified in terms of five […]

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The Ottoman Collapse And The Modern Middle East

It is the business of the counterfactual historian to yearn for the former Ottoman Empire when reflecting on the recent incessant regional instability. However, the fact that the empire was in free fall from 1798 onward makes a mockery of this view. Nevertheless, from Libya to Yemen, and Syria to Iraq, conflict typifies the ruptures […]

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