Often missed in the larger debate on America’s South Asia policy is how it is moving beyond the Af-Pak narrative and addressing other crucial issues besides terror. Numerous other initiatives include reaching out to Pakistan’s Mohajirs, big-ticket projects for Nepal’s development and the recent attempts to address issues of Maldives and Sri Lanka.
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But when extremist groups walk away from negotiations—as happens ten per cent of the time—they often get crushed. Sri Lanka’s Tamil Tigers pioneered the suicide vest. It was the only terrorist group to assassinate two world leaders—India’s Rajiv Gandhi, in 1991, and the Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa, in 1993. At its peak, it controlled strategic chunks of the country. But years of sporadic peace talks broke down in 2006. In 2009, the Sri Lankan military crushed the Tigers in a relentless offensive.
The real lesson, therefore, that India should learn from the Doklam standoff is that it shouldn’t draw wrong conclusions. The BRICS Summit in Xiamen is not to be mistaken as a “kiss-and-make-up” moment. Deep down, India has a choice to make and China is watching closely. Should the Modi government go further down the road of trespassing into China’s core interests in the South China Sea, raking up Tibet-related issues and identifying with the United States’ containment strategy against China?
For its part, Sri Lanka appears to have used its political savvy to square the circle for now, but the country will no doubt remain involved in the affairs of India and China in the future. And while being sandwiched between two great powers can be a precarious position for a small nation like Sri Lanka, the country has proved itself adept at playing these powers off one another for its own benefit.
Nepalese citizens hold an estimated $500 million in the banned notes, most of them sent back as savings by the more than one million Nepalese nationals working in India, says Chiranjibi Nepal, governor of the country’s central bank, the Nepal Rashtra Bank. Yet seven months after the ban, India has yet to exchange those notes with valid ones. Talks are on with India’s central bank, he says. As for Bhutan, its nationals hold $16 million in defunct Indian notes, says Dasho Penjore, governor of the country’s central bank, the Royal Monetary Authority.
Lone wolves are an old problem, but in recent decades, the number of attacks by them has grown. And it won’t fall anytime soon: ISIS has embraced the tactic, and recent successes may well inspire copycats. And although lone wolves usually kill few people, they have an outsize political impact. In both the United States and Europe, they are fuelling Islamophobia, isolating Muslim communities, and empowering populist demagogues.
Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to pump billions of dollars into the new Silk Road initiative as he described his signature foreign policy push as inclusive, one that should not be held hostage to old rivalries and power games. China is hosting at least 29 heads of state, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz, Sharif, for a two-day “Belt and Road” conference which India has chosen to give a miss.
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India is encircled by a growing ring of Chinese power and influence. To the north, garrisons, airfields and missile sites linked by modern road-rail networks underpin China’s dominant posture on the Tibetan plateau.
India is in a period of rapid economic development, but the nation has not been as generous as its neighbouring countries hoped it would be in providing financial assistance to underdeveloped areas and promoting regional integration. A yawning infrastructure funding gap in South Asian countries creates space for China and those nations to strengthen economic cooperation.
