Are China’s GDP Numbers Believable?

Almost immediately after the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released its second quarter GDP growth estimate of 7 percent in mid-July, a group of China watchers were crying foul. China officially targeted full-year growth of around 7 percent in 2015, a number matched exactly by its reported GDP figures for the first half of the […]

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Xi’s Wise Men

Past Chinese presidents have left the finer points of the economy to their premiers. Not Xi Jinping.  Since taking over the ruling Communist Party in November 2012, Xi has given himself direct control over both short-term financial policies and broader economic planning. He exercises this power through two secretive “leading groups,” one a reform panel […]

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The New “Two Chinas” Question

Today, a new, but very different, “two Chinas” question is emerging. It centers on whether China is best understood as a strong country, with a promising future despite some short-term difficulties, or as a country facing serious structural problems and uncertain long-term prospects. In short, two very different Chinas can now be glimpsed. But which […]

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Emerging Asia Can’t Just Rely On China

If you think Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is stressed, spare a thought for Agus Martowardojo. On Tuesday, the governor of Indonesia’s central bank had to choose between cutting interest rates to support growth or hiking them to prop up his currency. He ultimately decided to split the difference and do nothing. Martowardojo’s dilemma is emblematic of […]

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Is Xi Jinping Losing Control Of China?

President Xi Jinping’s Beijing doesn’t inspire confidence—not among the Chinese people, and not among those who live on China’s “peripheries,” who have taken note of the erosion of liberties that has accompanied this slow descent. Read Here – The National Interest

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China May Tip World Into Recession

Forget about all the shoes, toys and other exports. China may soon have another thing to offer the world: a recession. That is the prediction from Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, who says a continuation of China’s slowdown in the next years may drag global economic growth below 2 percent, […]

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China’s Illness Is Contagious For Asia

When the U.S. sneezes, an old saying goes, the world catches a cold. That’s been nowhere more true than in Asia. But as China’s coughing fit grows louder, countries in the region are wondering whether their neighbor’s illness will also prove contagious. Read Here – Bloomberg

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Who Blew Up China’s Stock Bubble?

In China, the invisible hand of the market sometimes needs help from the iron fist of the state. That’s certainly true after a meltdown vaporized $3.5 trillion in the value of shares traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. Read Here – Bloomberg China Tries Japan’s Approach to a Stock Bubble – Bloomberg View

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India Rising, China Slowing Doesn’t Mean Modi Wins

Statistics bear out China’s global dominance. Since Deng abandoned doctrinaire communism in 1978, growth has surged an average of 9.8 percent annually. Since 2001, China has overtaken Italy, the U.K., France, Germany, and Japan to become the world’s second-biggest economy. Its $10 trillion GDP dwarfs India’s $2 trillion. Not only has China built the world’s […]

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