The Stock-Market Disconnect

The best explanation for why stock markets remain so bullish despite a massive recession is that major publicly traded companies have not borne the brunt of the pandemic’s economic fallout. But having been spared by the virus, they could soon find themselves squarely in the sights of a populist backlash. Read Here | Project Syndicate

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Markets Look Vulnerable As Countries Ease Lockdowns

So far, most investors have viewed the easing of lockdown measures as a big positive for markets….It’s true that for the economy to begin climbing out of a sharp recession, businesses must be allowed to reopen and restrictions on movement have to be lifted. But reopening also carries with it fresh risks.  Read Here – CNN

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What The Stock Market Is Really Saying

The seeming confidence expressed by global equity markets in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has surprised many – including many market participants. But a closer look reveals an unambiguous message: The global economy is facing a long, deep malaise, followed by a “new normal” of reduced earnings and profitability for all but a chosen […]

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The Two Pandemics

Predicting the stock market at a time like this is hard. To do so well, we would have to predict the direct effects on the economy of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as all the real and psychological effects of the pandemic of financial anxiety. The two are different, but inseparable. Read Here – Project […]

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Asia’s Strongmen And Their Weak Economies

Many people seem to believe that authoritarian rulers deliver better economic results. And yet, with the possible exception of China’s Xi Jinping, Asia’s autocrats, from India to the Philippines, are presiding over increasingly fragile states and even more vulnerable economies. Read Here – Project Syndicate

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What Lehman Brothers’ Failure Means Today

The standard story about the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers is that it led to a deeper understanding of the risks of financial complexity and free-wheeling capitalism. In fact, the ensuing crises in the US, Europe, and elsewhere were more a product of broader changes in twenty-first-century politics and society. Read Here – Project […]

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Where Is The Next Crisis?

Southeast Asia, so long a byway of the world economy, has become a well-worn path for foreign investors seeking refuge from the continuing after-effects of the global financial crisis. They have come because the region has been surging ahead over the last few years, even as the West slumped, China readjusted and India stuttered. Read […]

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The Great Disconnect

Since the second half of 2012, financial markets have recovered strongly worldwide. Indeed, in the United States, the Dow Jones industrial average reached an all-time high in early March, having risen by close to 9% since September. In Europe, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “guns of August” turned out to be remarkably effective….But this financial market […]

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