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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “Total fertility rate”

India’s (Bad) Moment

INDIA will soon have a fifth of the world’s working-age population. But many are worried that it is squandering its opportunity. During the boom of the 1990s and 2000s it became fashionable to talk of India’s demographic dividend – evoking the experiences of East Asia. There, working-age populations rose at the same time as the ratio of dependents to workers fell. An associated rise in the rate of saving allowed more investment, helping the vast expansion of manufacturing that employed those workers and lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. India’s fertility rate dropped substantially in the 1980s and 1990s, and its working age population is expected to expand by 125m over the next decade. But now India’s GDP growth rate has fallen to half of its peak rate. The country’s record on job creation has been poor, households are redirecting their savings out of the financial system into physical assets, and manufacturers remain wary of labour rules and infrastructure bottlenecks, says The Economist.

 

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Japan’s Depopulation Time Bomb

Japan‘s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research on March 27 announced a population estimate for Japan in 2040. As expected, what emerges out of this is a nation with an unprecedented rapidly aging and declining population. The implications of the estimate must be taken very seriously and preparations made to ameliorate the impact of this situation.

Read Here – Japan Times

Getting Old: Lessons From Japan

It is interesting to take a look at some of the consequences of population decline that may lie ahead for Japan, particularly since, while Japan may be at the forefront of this trend, it is only one of many countries that will experience population decline over the coming decades.  In East Asia, Korea has a total fertility rate (TFR)—estimated at 1.23 for 2012—that is roughly similar to Japan’s and China’s TFRs, which are estimated at 1.39 and 1.55 for 2012 respectively.  All of these are well below the replacement rate of 2.1 that is needed to simply maintain the current population size.  This problem is not limited to East Asia; many European countries have very low TFRs and even parts of the developing world are experiencing declining TFRs.

Read Here – The Diplomat

For Better Planning, Watch Global Demographic Trends

An understanding of demographic trends can assist governments in targeting policies for the future and saving money for education, retirement, taxes, healthcare, distribution of natural resources, and more. More importantly, targeted policies can ease resentment emerging over demographic imbalances. The globe can anticipate an additional 1 billion people by 2025 – a total of 8 billion – and demographer Joseph Chamie lists seven trends. Most of the globe’s annual population growth will be in less developed nations, while more than half the world’s gross domestic product is from the most developed nations. The percentage growth of the aged will be fourfold that of the working class. More people are concentrated in urban areas, many along coastlines and vulnerable to rising seas and other repercussions of climate change. Global fertility rates continue to decline, but rates still vary among nations. Such trends suggest many imbalances, between young and old, poor and wealthy, that will spur immigration. Economic uncertainty is no excuse for policy stalemates in the face of demography’s relative certainty. Shifting demographics demand policy responses – the sooner, the better. – YaleGlobal

 

Read Here – YaleGlobal

 

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