Impacts will flow through three main channels. One, higher prices for commodities like food and energy will push up inflation further, in turn eroding the value of incomes and weighing on demand. Two, neighboring economies in particular will grapple with disrupted trade, supply chains, and remittances as well as an historic surge in refugee flows. […]
A recent flurry of diplomatic activity has seen Beijing reach out to Southeast Asia and India as it opens to benefit from concerns over sanctions on Russia, but observers warn that although this presents an opportunity to counter Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, ongoing tensions remain. Read More Here
The typical Western view of India’s reluctance to slam Russia hard for its invasion of Ukraine is riddled with problems emanating from the lopsided understanding of India’s perspective of the world. The way New Delhi looks at the world — given its past non-aligned point of view — is a result of centuries of learning. […]
Far from being in an unenviable bind, New Delhi now looks well placed to leverage its position in the middle for its own benefit in the short and long term. Read More Here
Chinese President Xi JInping urges EU leaders not to ‘tie the world’ to the conflict and warns that spillover effects could set back decades of international cooperation while European leaders ask Beijing not to ‘interfere’ with sanctions on Russia and say ‘clearly opposing’ views on the conflict were expressed. Read More Here
However the conflict in Eastern Europe unfolds, it seems clear that countries will have to give national security a far more prominent position in their development agendas. This means not only increasing defense spending, but also diversifying energy and food sources – and preparing for global economic fragmentation. Read More Here
For those who remember late Soviet history, there is a familiar analog to these events: the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. As with the war in Ukraine, the invasion of Afghanistan was driven by the fear that Moscow was losing a crucial piece of its sphere of influence. Read More Here
Even more than the Emiratis, the Saudis hold the key to oil wells and expect big concessions from the United States before opening their taps and reversing their pro-Russia oil policy. Read More Here
This year is shaping up to be a pendulum year—a moment in history when the big formative forces of world affairs reverse direction. There are telling parallels with the year 2001. Europe, however, needs to draw the right lessons. Read More Here
The United States is edging closer to what may be the most fateful choice of its modern history: whether to take bolder and more aggressive action to defend a beleaguered people against the world’s other major nuclear power. Read More Here
