The New Hegemon in Africa

Ethiopia has come a long way since the dark days of a quarter-century ago. Its resurgence, domestically and internationally, is unmistakable. Never have so many Ethiopians had so much reason to be optimistic and confident about the future. The Ethiopian vision of a Nile Basin where resources no longer lead to zero-sum competition and violent […]

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China’s Terrorism Tensions

Tensions in resource-rich western China have been escalating for years, as Han Chinese emigrate to the region, in many cases taking the best jobs while locals, especially those who don’t speak Mandarin, face widespread poverty and growing unemployment. Read Here – The Atlantic

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China’s Hidden Unemployment Crisis

The reality is China’s official urban unemployment rate has long been a near-worthless measure. Even during the global financial crisis in 2009, when tens of millions of workers in China’s export factories lost their jobs, the official rate barely stirred, and it has been moving between just under 4 percent and 4.3 percent for most […]

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China’s Economic Slowdown: How Much Can Beijing Tolerate?

To be sure, Chinese leaders would prefer balanced high growth to low growth. However, the current leadership is aware of the enormous risks of allowing highly distorted growth to continue. Since 2008, Beijing has maintained growth with a massive injection of credit, much of it invested in speculative real estate, excessive industrial capacity, and infrastructure […]

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Saudi Oil Power And Its LImitations

Saudi Arabia is facing multiple fronts for potential destabilization. A modern society and wealthy citizenry have depended on millions of skilled and unskilled foreign workers to build infrastructure and keep homes, banks and, restaurants running smoothly. Oil money is also behind tremendous investment in education and other social benefits. Yet fossil fuels are limited. Competition […]

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Learning from Germany

Ten years ago, Germany was considered the sick man of Europe. Its economy was mired in recession, while the rest of Europe was recovering; its unemployment rate was higher than the eurozone average; it was violating the European budget rules by running excessive deficits; and its financial system was in crisis. A decade later, Germany […]

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Why Stimulus Has Failed

Two fundamental beliefs have driven economic policy around the world in recent years. The first is that the world suffers from a shortage of aggregate demand relative to supply; the second is that monetary and fiscal stimulus will close the gap. Is it possible that the diagnosis is right, but that the remedy is wrong? […]

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