Now that the old rules governing macroeconomic cycles no longer seem to apply, it remains to be seen what might cause the next recession in the United States. But if recent history is our guide, the biggest threat stems not from the US Federal Reserve or any one sector of the economy, but rather from the White House.
China’s all-consuming focus on sealing a US trade deal forced its top trade negotiator to cancel a trip to Brussels, raising the risk of Europe being pushed “off a cliff”, according to the head of a leading European business group in Beijing.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the reclusive leader of the world’s deadliest terrorist movement, was killed during a daring nighttime raid by U.S. Special Operations soldiers in northwestern Syria, President Trump announced…After five years of spawning terror that reached the far corners of the globe, the leader of isis was trapped—“whimpering and crying and screaming”—in a dead-end tunnel, with three children, Trump said.
Also Read: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Dead (But His Legacy Lives on)
The real problem with the phase one accord announced on October 11 is the basic structure of the deal into which it presumably fits. From trade to currency, the approach is the same – prescribing bilateral remedies for multilateral problems.
Even if the Trump administration moves closer to Turkey, the relationship between the country and Congress will sustain long-lasting damage. It’s unclear whether the latest cease-fire will mollify the cries to punish Turkey.
The war that now looms largest is a war nobody apparently wants… Iran has no interest in a wide-ranging conflict that it knows it could not win. Israel is satisfied with calibrated operations in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza but fears a larger confrontation that could expose it to thousands of rockets. Saudi Arabia is determined to push back against Iran, but without confronting it militarily. Yet the conditions for an all-out war in the Middle East are riper than at any time in recent memory.
The Federal Reserve’s old moniker of “lender of last resort” is no longer relevant. Its policy of holding its federal funds rate above levels seen anywhere else in the developed world and borrowing near these rates has made it the “borrower of first resort.” This is problematic.
While India welcomes the opportunity to serenade the American president in front of the diaspora, Delhi should be careful about not crossing some red lines. China, for example, is getting into trouble in many countries for turning its relationship with the diaspora into an active intervention in the domestic politics of the host nation. Given the current polarisation of US domestic politics and the profound hostility towards Trump among the Democrats, Delhi has to be careful not to be seen as tilting in favour of one side.
Almost immediately after the attack on a major Saudi Aramco oil production facility in Abqaiq, the first fingers were pointed at Iran…As Saudi oil production halved and U.S. gasoline prices spiked, President Donald Trump raised the stakes. He warned that the United States was “locked and loaded” following identification of the perpetrator. This led numerous outlets to claim that a U.S.-Iran war is likely or even inevitable. Fortunately, there are five reasons why it’s not.
For many years, the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September was a centerpiece of U.S. global leadership…But when presidents and prime ministers gather in New York starting this week, they will do so under the auspices of an organization that is undergoing a profound transformation. The United States has let go of the wheel, and Beijing stands poised to take hold of it.
