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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “ageing”

Japan’s Abandoned Land To Be Size Of Sri Lanka, Costing Country $52bn

Around 11% of Japan’s land is “unclaimed” — plots that cannot be traced back to their owners. The figure is expected to jump to 19% by 2040, according to an expert study group. To put that into perspective, currently 41,000 sq km of land, equivalent to the Japanese island of Kyushu, or slightly smaller than Taiwan, is unclaimed. That will expand to 72,000 sq km, equivalent to the bigger Japanese island of Hokkaido, or larger than Sri Lanka.

Read Here – Nikkei Asian Review

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Let’s Get Real About What Ails Japan’s Economy

A quarter of a century of failure and economic stagnation has built a strong consensus on what ails Japan. All sources of analysis—domestic, foreign, government, corporate and nonprofit—identify two problems: the country’s aging demographics and its deeply entrenched, top-down approach to economic organization. This analysis is wrong.

Read Here – The National Interest

Will More Babies Make China Sing Louder?

With about 20 per cent of the world’s population, China has a strange problem: there are more boys than girls (sounds a bit like the situation in many parts of India) and it’s a population that is getting old faster than it should be if China still wants to keep growing its economy on the back of a large workforce. An ageing population coupled with a shrinking workforce is a recipe for disaster. Apparently China could have added 400 million to its population in the past three decades if the single-child policy wasn’t in place.

Read Here – BusinessWorld

Japan’s Silver Generation Needs See Gold

Japan has two problems: It is rapidly aging, and its older citizens will not let politicians do anything about it. The country’s leaders must start thinking less about elderly voters and more about young families, or Japan’s economic prospects will remain grim.

Read Here – Foreign Affairs

Japan’s Depopulation Time Bomb

Japan‘s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research on March 27 announced a population estimate for Japan in 2040. As expected, what emerges out of this is a nation with an unprecedented rapidly aging and declining population. The implications of the estimate must be taken very seriously and preparations made to ameliorate the impact of this situation.

Read Here – Japan Times

China’s Vast Reserve Of Cheap Workers In The Hinterland Is Vanishing At A Vertiginous Pace.

We can now discern more or less when the catch-up growth miracle will sputter out. Another seven years or so – enough to bouy global coal, crude, and copper prices for a while – but then it will all be over. China’s demographic dividend will be exhausted.

Beijing revealed last week that the country’s working age population has already begun to shrink, sooner than expected. It will soon go into “precipitous decline”, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Japan hit this inflexion point fourteen years ago, but by then it was already rich, with $3 trillion of net savings overseas. China has hit the wall a quarter century earlier in its development path.

Read Here – The Telegraph, London

What Happens When China Goes “Gray”?

As China‘s major trading partners try to control rising public pension and health care costs, they may not realize they also have an important stake in China’s ongoing struggle to fashion a safety net for its own rapidly aging population. Many observers assume China has no pensions or healthcare insurance for the 185 million people over the age of 60 (13.7% of population), the highest official retirement age for most workers. They may well believe this explains why Chinese families save so much–more than 30% of household income–and therefore spend less on consumer goods, including imports from trading partners.

But this line of reasoning is faulty because China already has large and rapidly growing public pension and health insurance programs in the cities, and is in the process of extending them to rural areas.

Read Here – The Diplomat

For Better Planning, Watch Global Demographic Trends

An understanding of demographic trends can assist governments in targeting policies for the future and saving money for education, retirement, taxes, healthcare, distribution of natural resources, and more. More importantly, targeted policies can ease resentment emerging over demographic imbalances. The globe can anticipate an additional 1 billion people by 2025 – a total of 8 billion – and demographer Joseph Chamie lists seven trends. Most of the globe’s annual population growth will be in less developed nations, while more than half the world’s gross domestic product is from the most developed nations. The percentage growth of the aged will be fourfold that of the working class. More people are concentrated in urban areas, many along coastlines and vulnerable to rising seas and other repercussions of climate change. Global fertility rates continue to decline, but rates still vary among nations. Such trends suggest many imbalances, between young and old, poor and wealthy, that will spur immigration. Economic uncertainty is no excuse for policy stalemates in the face of demography’s relative certainty. Shifting demographics demand policy responses – the sooner, the better. – YaleGlobal

 

Read Here – YaleGlobal

 

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