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looking beyond borders

foreign policy and global economy

Archive for the tag “inflation”

The Growing Risk Of A Global Recession And Crisis In 2020

Beyond the US, the fragility of growth in debt-ridden China and some other emerging markets remains a concern, as do economic, policy, financial and political risks in Europe. Worse, across the advanced economies, the policy toolbox for responding to a crisis remains limited. The monetary and fiscal interventions and private-sector backstops used after the 2008 financial crisis simply cannot be deployed to the same effect today.

Read Here – Mint

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How Inflation Could Return

After years of low inflation, investors and policymakers have settled into a cyclical mindset that assumes advanced economies are simply suffering from insufficient aggregate demand. But they are ignoring structural factors at their peril.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

The Global Economy’s Uncertain Future

At this time last year, the global economy was experiencing strong, widespread growth, with even the long-stagnant European Union staging a robust recovery. But with key indicators of trade and investment now weakening, a new crisis – not least a global trade war – could quickly bring the global upturn to a halt.

Read Here – Project Syndicate

As Good As It Gets

For the first time since 2010, the world economy is outperforming most predictions, and we expect this strength to continue. Our global GDP forecast for 2018 is 4.0%, up from 3.7% in 2017 and meaningfully above consensus. The strength in global growth is broad-based across most advanced and emerging economies, says a Goldman Sachs report on the global economy.

Read Here – Global Economic Analyst/Goldman Sachs

The World’s $100 Trillion Question: Why Is Inflation So Low?

Central bankers and investors are grappling with a $100 trillion question: why consumer price inflation remains so low in most parts of the world even as economic growth quickens. Compounding the riddle, question marks are now emerging over the one part of the global inflation picture that had been moving higher — producer prices.

Read Here – Bloomberg

The Risks To America’s Booming Economy

The US has experienced a decade of excessively low interest rates, which have caused investors and lenders to seek higher yields by bidding up the prices of all types of assets and making risky loans. The danger is that overpriced assets and high-risk loans could lose value and cause an economic downturn.

Read Here -Project Syndicate

Pakistan’s Economy Is A Pleasant Surprise

Pakistan’s improvement matters because, with approximately 200 million people, it is the sixth most populous country in the world. It is also a nuclear power, and arguably a key to peace in the region.

Read Here – Bloomberg

China’s Debt Bomb

It’s a bomb! A mountain! A horror movie and a treadmill to hell! To doomsayers, China’s $25 trillion pile of public and private debt is a threat to the global economy. Or maybe it’s just a manageable byproduct of the boom that created the world’s second-biggest economy.

Read Here – Bloomberg

China May Tip World Into Recession

Forget about all the shoes, toys and other exports. China may soon have another thing to offer the world: a recession. That is the prediction from Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, who says a continuation of China’s slowdown in the next years may drag global economic growth below 2 percent, a threshold he views as equivalent to a world recession. It would be the first global slump over the past 50 years without the U.S. contracting.

Read Here – Bloomberg

A Hard Choice

Russia doesn’t just need petroleum to fuel its tanks and planes, but to pay for them as well. Because oil and gas revenues comprise half the federal budget, defense spending is tethered to energy prices.

Read Here – Moscow Times

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