The Biden administration vastly underestimated the inflationary impact of the $6 trillion Covid stimulus package, which began under Donald Trump. It also underestimated the resilience of the Russian economy and the capabilities of the Russian military. Read More Here
Global growth is expected to slump from 5.7 percent in 2021 to 2.9 percent in 2022— significantly lower than 4.1 percent that was anticipated in January. It is expected to hover around that pace over 2023-24, as the war in Ukraine disrupts activity, investment, and trade in the near term, pent-up demand fades, and fiscal […]
The long-time critics of globalization who warned us that it would end badly are having a told-you-so moment… It took a protectionist U.S. president, a global pandemic, and a new European war to prove them right. Read More Here
Economies around the world have accumulated layer upon layer of legacies from past shocks since the global financial crisis. Extraordinary fiscal actions in response to the pandemic led to a surge in fiscal deficits and public debt in 2020. Read More Here
Prices of non-fungible tokens remain high for now and may continue to increase for some time, but a crash will come. With central banks set to tighten monetary policy in an effort to rein in inflation, new and untested asset classes are likely to be punished harder than more reliable ones. Read More Here
The continuing global recovery faces multiple challenges as the pandemic enters its third year. The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led to renewed mobility restrictions in many countries and increased labor shortages. Supply disruptions still weigh on activity and are contributing to higher inflation, adding to pressures from strong demand and elevated food […]
After helping to drive decades of development and modernization in emerging economies, the twentieth-century economist W. Arthur Lewis’s Nobel Prize-winning growth model can now be applied to the entire world. Unfortunately, what it shows is that we are heading into a period of deep uncertainty and supply-constrained growth. Read More Here
In planning for the year ahead, economic policymakers should pay less attention to the consensus economic forecast and more attention to today’s everything asset and credit market bubble. Maybe then when those bubbles burst, they will not be caught out as flatfooted as they were in 2008. Read More Here
Google searches for “stagflation” this month are on track to hit their highest level since 2008, while Goldman Sachs wrote the term is now “the most common word in client conversations.” Read More Here
Europe has met the COVID-19 pandemic with audacity and imagination and is enjoying a strong but bumpy economic recovery. It now faces two policy challenges: controlling inflation and dialling back fiscal support. Read More Here
looking beyond borders 