The general question of whether leaders matter is a large one, and an old one. One might be excused for thinking that the answer is obvious, given that so much time and energy are invested getting into the heads of leaders. Intelligence agencies compile biographical profiles, even psychological ones, in the certainty that leaders matter a great deal. But there is a school that isn’t persuaded, and that holds that leaders cannot divert the broad stream of history, or are themselves pushed to the fore by that stream.

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