The trade war seems like the simplest explanation for China’s diminishing economic growth. The White House has slapped tariffs up to 25% on a $550 billion basket of U.S.-bound exports and Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped 22% in September. But while U.S. China hawks would no doubt like to take credit for dinging Beijing’s economy, Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics, notes that exports globally have decreased and argues that the trade war sanctions likely aren’t the cause of China’s slowdown.

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