Last week the UK’s defence select committee published a report which concluded that civil war in Afghanistan is likely when international forces leave next year. If the predictions of ‘Securing the Future of Afghanistan’ are correct, the Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence share much of the blame. When I returned to Kabul in January and asked an American journalist I’d known in 2001 his view of the situation, he said: “When you look at the facts on the ground, it is hard to believe that civil war is not inevitable.”

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