There is a consensus among commentators that the visit of the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to Egypt – complete with red carpet and kiss on both cheeks from President Mohammed Morsi – does not amount to a breakthrough. The view of US think-tanks is that it does not amount to very much at all, and certainly not worth getting anxious about. Such a consensus is always dangerous, and it is worth looking more closely at what it is based on.

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