As one of the most strategically important regions of the world, the Middle East is often in flux. The year 2012, however, has been an especially dramatic year. Looking back, in my last column of the year, it is clear that there are flashes – of news, of violence, of surprise – that catch our attention. But below the surface, there are deeper themes at play.
It can be hard to guess, from this brief vantage point, how the big events of the year will look to historians. Last year was dominated by the Arab Spring, especially in its Egyptian incarnation, and 2012 continues that theme. The writing of the Egyptian constitution marks a high point in that post-revolution transition. Yet what should have been a celebration and a model for other regional countries has devolved into partisan bickering. Much of the blame for that must be laid at the feet of President Mohammed Morsi. But the significance of the moment is not in doubt. If the constitution survives in its current incarnation, it will be a real turning point in Egypt’s history.