A Trump victory could be followed by a rapprochement with Russia. This could mean lifting of Treasury sanctions on the Kremlin and a boost to investment in Russian energy assets. Does any of that sound bullish to the oil price? More investment in Russian infrastructure surely means more oil capacity from the world’s largest producer, no? On the other hand, Donald Trump opposes the Iranian nuclear deal, and there is a real risk that he refuses to certify Iranian compliance… likely resulting in extraterritorial congressional sanctions snapping back, which could curb the enthusiasm of foreign companies looking to invest in Iran’s energy sector.

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