In the debate over the future of China’s growth, one factor typically animates the bulls more than any other: the country’s sheer size. One way or another, this undergirds most optimistic scenarios. China is so big it can absorb years and years of public-works spending without waste becoming a drag. The population is so large, and still sufficiently poor, that there is seemingly infinite scope for catch-up growth.

The reality is very different.

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